Cocoa prices took a hit this week after Trump's tariff rollback. December ICE NY cocoa dropped 0.62%, while London cocoa fell 1.47%—sounds small but watch this: the admin cut 10% reciprocal tariffs on non-US commodities including cocoa, though Brazil cocoa still faces a hefty 40% national-security tariff.

Here's the twist: West Africa (Ivory Coast + Ghana) is seeing bumper crops. Ivory Coast shipments hit 516,787 MT in the new season (Oct-Nov), down 5.7% YoY, but chocolate makers report cocoa pod counts 7% above the 5-year average. The real problem? Demand is tanking. Hershey admitted Halloween chocolate sales were "disappointing"—that's 18% of annual US candy sales gone soft. Asia's Q3 cocoa grindings plummeted 17% YoY (9-year low), Europe down 4.8% (10-year low). North America chocolate sales volume cratered 21% in 13 weeks ending Sept 7.

On the bullish side: ICE inventories hit a 7.75-month low (1.77M bags), and Nigeria's cocoa output is projected to drop 11% to 305k MT next season. But ICCO forecasts a 142k MT global surplus for 2024/25—the first in 4 years—after last year's 494k MT deficit (60-year record). The supply-demand pendulum is swinging hard.