🧠 What if I told you that we have been in a full bear market for a year... without anyone noticing?

Is the 4-year cycle broken?

The chart may seem complex at first glance...
But it hides something difficult to overlook when you look at the Bitcoin cycles.

📌 The anomaly of the current cycle

Traditionally, Bitcoin follows a very defined pattern:
Market floor
First bullish impulse of approximately ~520 days
Second bullish impulse of approximately ~520 days

ATH post-halving
Start of the bear market

But in this cycle that pattern was completely broken.

🚨 1. Bitcoin reached ATH before the halving

This had never occurred in previous cycles.
The first major impulse that usually lasts around 520 days did occur, but it did so by breaking the all-time high prematurely pre-halving.

🚨 2. The second impulse was anomalous

In other cycles, it lasted about 520 days approximately and was parabolic.
In this cycle it was not parabolic, it was much shorter and weaker.

🏛 The reason? 🏛

The massive influx of institutional capital with the purchase of almost 4M BTC

When the market shifts from retail to institutional:

Cycles become more efficient
Trends are shortening
Volatility is reduced
Parabolic impulses are attenuated
That is, the classic cycle no longer exists.

🤔 So... have we been in a bear market for a year now?

The theory makes sense because:

✔️ The current cycle could have lasted ~742 days approx

Much shorter than the previous ones, which normally lasted more than 1000 days.

✔️ The price has been consolidating for ~365 days

So far, we have not had the typical vertical drop, but rather an institutional bear market:
Silent
Low volatility
Dominated by accumulation

✔️ If the cycles have really accelerated...

Here comes the interesting part:

It is possible that the next pre-halving and post-halving will not be bullish... but rather a bear market, exactly the opposite of what most would expect.

But for this scenario to happen, the price should continue sideways/bullish until then.

I could be right, or I could be wrong.
Maybe the cycle will behave like it always has.

But this cycle has already left us clear signs that something changed.
And when the market shows a structural change, no matter how small it may seem,
it is not something that can be ignored.

It is simply one more factor that we need to take into account...