Recently, the crypto market has once again heated up due to Peter Brandt's pessimistic prediction for Bitcoin. This seasoned trader with decades of experience pointed out that Bitcoin has undergone multiple exponential parabolic rises over the past 15 years, often followed by deep pullbacks, with declines generally around 80%. In his view, the current cycle is not over, and this round of adjustment may even last until 2029, with the next clear bull run peak possibly occurring in September 2029. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin prices have long hovered below $90,000, with a noticeable decline in market risk appetite. Some investors have started to shift their focus from Bitcoin to the altcoin market, leading to a rise in discussions about the "altcoin season is coming." As Bitcoin's dominance weakens, the rotation of funds is believed to potentially benefit mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana.

The United States' regulatory landscape for crypto assets has seen a significant personnel change. Michael Selig, a supporter of crypto asset development, has officially been sworn in as the 16th chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), succeeding acting chair Caroline Pham, who served for nearly four years. This appointment is regarded as an important signal of the ongoing shift in the U.S. digital asset regulatory direction towards a balance of "clear rules and innovation." Selig was previously confirmed by the Senate on December 18 and served as the chief legal advisor for the cryptocurrency working group at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as well as a senior advisor to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. His background spans both the SEC and the CFTC, and he is seen by the market as an important bridge to promote the coordinated regulation of crypto assets and derivatives. In his inaugural speech, Selig stated that we are currently in a "unique moment," with new technologies, digital asset platforms, and retail participation rapidly increasing, and Congress may also advance legislation on the market structure of digital assets.

The Czech Republic has recently clarified its tax policy on crypto assets: individuals who sell Bitcoin and other crypto assets after holding them for three years will be exempt from Capital Gains Tax. This move has quickly attracted market attention, making the Czech Republic one of the most crypto-friendly countries in Europe, and providing a clear and direct policy incentive for long-term holding of Bitcoin. The core objective of this policy is to encourage long-term investment and reduce short-term speculative behavior. By providing tax incentives to long-term holders, regulators hope to guide investors to allocate digital assets more rationally, thereby reducing market volatility and promoting the crypto ecosystem towards a more mature and stable development path. For investors who are optimistic about the value of Bitcoin in the long term, the "three years tax exemption" significantly increases net return expectations.

The United States is sending clear signals that a substantial shift in the regulation of Crypto Assets and artificial intelligence is imminent. David Sacks, the U.S. cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence affairs head, recently referred to the current regulatory leadership as a "dream team", which is seen by the market as an important indication of Washington reaching a Consensus on the regulation of digital assets and cutting-edge technology. For a long time, the U.S. crypto industry has been plagued by regulatory uncertainty. The disagreements between the SEC and CFTC regarding asset attributes and compliance boundaries have resulted in high compliance risks for crypto businesses, forcing some innovative projects to move abroad. Sachs' latest statement indicates that federal regulatory agencies are shifting from fragmented enforcement to a more coordinated, clear, and results-oriented regulatory framework.

Recently, Chainlink (LINK) price movement has been under pressure, maintaining a clear downtrend since late August, and technically, it is gradually approaching the confirmation of a typical bearish double top pattern. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that whales have started to continuously reduce their holdings of LINK, further strengthening the market's bearish expectations, and a pullback of over 50% cannot be ruled out for LINK in the future. According to the data, as of December 23, the price of Chainlink is approximately $12.49, with a market capitalization of about $8.84 billion, down about 16% from the high point of this month, and the cumulative decline from the year's high has approached 55%. The overall downward trend is closely related to the macro environment, including uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies and concerns about the Federal Reserve's tight interest rate stance, which have led to a continuous decline in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.

According to ChainCatcher news and Cryptonews report, Edul Patel, CEO of the Indian Crypto Assets trading and investment platform Mudrex, stated that stablecoins, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), and the integration of artificial intelligence with Blockchain will be one of the biggest driving forces behind the popularity of Crypto Assets by 2026. He pointed out that in terms of regulatory and investor behavior changes, although India has developed mature exchanges and investor awareness is continuously improving, "what is currently lacking is clarity in regulation." He expects that investors will gradually shift from speculation to fundamental analysis, and people may be more inclined to choose projects that have clear real-world application cases, robust fundamentals, and greater transparency in areas such as token economics. This trend has already been seen in decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, Web3, and emerging artificial intelligence.

Multiple market analysts believe that the likelihood of the familiar "full altcoin season" occurring in 2026 is decreasing, and the crypto market may enter a new phase of high differentiation. Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx Research, pointed out that in the next market cycle, only "blue-chip crypto assets" with real adoption rates, long-term narratives, and liquidity foundations will be able to continuously attract funds. Ko stated that retail investors who expect all alts to rise may feel disappointed. He believes that the market characteristics in 2026 will be "selective liquidity," where funds will only flow to projects that are widely accepted in the market and have clear fundamentals, rather than low-quality or purely speculative tokens. This judgment implies that the broad altcoin rotation driven by sentiment in the past may be difficult to replicate.

Jiuzi Holdings announced a strategic partnership with the core organization of the EOS crypto ecosystem, Exsat Network. Both parties plan to jointly create a global crypto assets custody and storage business with a scale of up to $3 billion. This cooperation marks Jiuzi's further deepening layout in the field of digital assets and blockchain infrastructure, and also releases a clear signal of its acceleration into the institutional-level crypto services track. According to the cooperation agreement, both parties will launch institutional-level Crypto Assets storage and accomplice solutions for global clients, especially institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The related services will focus on the secure storage of digital assets, settlement support, yield strategies, and financial products derived from encryption accomplice, aiming to meet the core needs of institutions for compliance, security, and professional management.

Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has shown a clear pattern of differentiation. On one hand, overall risk appetite continues to cool, with traders and institutional funds opting to wait and see or retreat; on the other hand, some key long-term funds are quietly positioning themselves, creating an important foreshadowing for the future market. According to on-chain data, medium and small-scale holding addresses have been continuously reducing their ETH positions over the past few months. With rising macro uncertainties, these investors tend to lower their risk exposure and avoid potential volatility. In sharp contrast, the true "Ethereum whales" have begun to take action. Since July, large addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have been consistently increasing their holdings, with their net purchases nearing historical highs.

On the day of the Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM), the stock price of Bitcoin reserve concept company Metaplanet performed strongly, rising over 4% during the session. This increase was attributed to the approval of all five key proposals by shareholders, which the market generally interpreted as a clear endorsement of Metaplanet's long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Metaplanet today officially concluded its special shareholders' meeting, and the results are seen as a crucial turning point for the company's future development. CEO Simon Gerovich confirmed afterwards that all proposals submitted by the management were successfully passed, including the core content regarding adjustments to the capital structure, arrangements for preferred shares, and future Bitcoin accumulation plans. The company's long-term goal is to gradually build a holding scale of up to 100,000 Bitcoins, which has also led the market to view it as the "Asian version of MicroStrategy."

Since December, the price of Bitcoin has generally maintained a range-bound fluctuation trend, with both bulls and bears repeatedly battling. Although there have been multiple ups and downs in the short term, the overall structure still lacks a clear direction. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has risen by about 5%, while it has remained basically flat over the past week, reflecting a wait-and-see state in the market. However, the latest on-chain data shows that buying pressure in the spot market is significantly increasing, bringing new variables to the future market trend. From an on-chain perspective, two signals are particularly critical: changes in whale behavior and the flow of funds to exchanges. First, the number of addresses holding at least 1000 Bitcoins began to recover after a brief decline on December 17. This indicator is typically used to measure the movements of "whales," and its recovery suggests that large holders are gradually increasing their positions rather than continuing to sell. Although the current level is still below the high point of the past six months, the directional change indicates that signs of accumulation at the market bottom are strengthening.

Japanese government bonds continue to fall, as the Central Bank raises the Benchmark interest rate to a 30-year high, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a new high since 1999. The market lacks clear guidance on future policy tightening, and the yen briefly rose against the dollar.

BlockBeats News, December 20th, according to GMGN market information, today the x402 concept coins showed a clear rebound, including: Solana ecosystem x402 concept coin PayAI rebounded over 107% in a single day, with a current market cap of $15.08 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.7 million. Base ecosystem x402 concept coin PING rebounded over 77% in a single day, with a current market cap of $6.9 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $500,000. Previously, it was reported that Solana tweeted the official Twitter account "x402 on Solana." The account description is "Building solutions on Solana with native internet x402 payment features." BlockBeats reminds users that the prices of related tokens are highly volatile, and trading volume continues to decline.

Ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision announcement today, the crypto market has seen attention-grabbing whale movements. A large on-chain trader held approximately $717 million in crypto long positions at a key macro juncture, sparking market vigilance for short-term volatility. Despite current unrealized losses reaching $54 million, the whale has not reduced its position, demonstrating strong confidence in macro event-driven market trends. From the position structure, this whale primarily allocates mainstream crypto assets through Hyperliquid exchange, including about 203,000 ETH, 1,000 BTC, and over 300,000 SOL, showing a clear macro liquidity betting strategy. These assets are typically highly sensitive to interest rate policies and risk appetite changes, and diversified holdings also reduce risks associated with single-coin volatility.

The latest survey shows that, as housing costs soar and traditional wealth accumulation paths are blocked, cryptocurrencies are becoming an important choice for young investors in the United States. A joint survey by leading US CEX and Ipsos indicates that among 4,350 surveyed American adults, 45% of Generation Z and millennial investors hold cryptocurrencies, while among older investors, this proportion is only 18%, a generational gap of 27 percentage points. The survey results reflect a clear trend: young people are systematically shifting towards digital assets. 73% of young respondents believe that achieving wealth growth through traditional means (such as buying a house, long-term stock investments) has become more difficult, compared to 57% among older groups. The continued decline in housing affordability, high student loan debt, and wages that fail to keep up with inflation are constantly squeezing the wealth-building opportunities for young people.

As Bitcoin prices retreat to around $84,800, the crypto market sentiment quickly shifts to pessimism. On social media platforms, retail investors' panic-driven comments have noticeably increased, with negative opinions far surpassing bullish sentiment in discussion popularity, drawing widespread market attention. Santiment, an on-chain data analysis firm, points out that the current social sentiment structure shows a clear imbalance. A large number of retail investors are expressing concerns, bearish views, and even panic-driven expectations after the price drop, creating an extreme emotional reaction. According to their long-term tracked historical data, this phenomenon is often not a sign of trend continuation but may instead indicate the possibility of a short-term price rebound.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes that Japan's interest rate hike is the last major negative factor. Currently, market fluctuations are short-term behaviors, and the future bull market trend is clear. He emphasizes that now is the best time for spot investment, and next year the cryptocurrency industry will迎来 major positive news. Investors need to endure volatility to achieve returns.

Important progress has been made in the United States on cryptocurrency regulation legislation. David Sacks, the White House's Director of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs, recently stated that the highly anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been scheduled to enter the formal review stage in the Senate in January next year. This statement is seen as an important signal for the United States to establish a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. Sacks revealed on social platform X that he has communicated with Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman. Both key legislators confirmed that the bill will be submitted to the relevant committees for review in January. Sacks emphasized that the milestone cryptocurrency legislation, promoted by President Trump, is now "closer than ever" to passing.

Recent Ethereum price movements have revealed clear signals of a battle between bulls and bears. After a single-day correction of over 3%, ETH showed initial signs of rebound, but the overall structure remains in a highly sensitive decision zone. Whether from price patterns, momentum indicators, or on-chain cost distribution, Ethereum is currently at a critical juncture between potential rebound and further decline. From a technical perspective, Ethereum is operating within a gradually converging triangle pattern. This pattern typically indicates increasing market divergence and an imminent decision on direction. The price is approaching the lower trendline, an area often associated with gradually weakening selling pressure. From early to mid-December, ETH's price continued to raise lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) kept declining, forming a hidden bullish divergence, indicating that selling momentum is weakening.

Recently, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have announced multiple policy adjustments related to cryptocurrencies, which are interpreted by the market as a clear shift in the attitude of U.S. regulators towards digital assets. These measures focus on lowering barriers for institutional participation, promoting tokenization development, and improving overall market liquidity, sending positive signals for the medium- and long-term development of the crypto industry. On the Federal Reserve side, they have withdrawn the restrictive policy statement issued in 2023 and introduced new guidelines allowing regulated and unregulated member banks to participate in cryptocurrency-related businesses. The Federal Reserve explicitly views cryptocurrencies as innovative technologies to enhance banking efficiency and service capabilities, which means banks will be able to more broadly offer crypto asset custody, access, and tokenization-related services in the future.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have shown a clear rebound. On Wednesday, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of approximately $457 million, reaching the highest level in over a month, indicating that institutional funds are reaccelerating their entry. Looking at specific products, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) performed the best, with a single-day inflow of about $391 million, accounting for most of the total inflow that day. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) followed closely, with an inflow of approximately $111 million. According to Farside Investors, the cumulative net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $57 billion, with total assets surpassing $112 billion, accounting for about 6.5% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.

Recently, Bitcoin prices have remained high with continuous fluctuations. Over the past month, the sideways trading has gradually evolved into a typical inverted cup and handle technical pattern, sparking significant market concern over potential downside risks. Meanwhile, large-scale liquidation events have occurred frequently, and bullish sentiment is noticeably under pressure. Data shows that Bitcoin's price once rebounded from $86,000 to an intraday high of $90,165, but then quickly fell back to around $86,600. Over the past month, Bitcoin has been oscillating within the range of $82,000 to $95,000, with no clear direction. Currently, the price is still over 30% below the all-time high set in October this year, and market confidence has significantly weakened.

Recently, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global (NBIM) expressed clear support for Tokyo-listed company Metaplanet, drawing significant market attention. As one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world, managing assets close to $2 trillion, NBIM voted in favor of all five management proposals presented by the company at Metaplanet's Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM), which is seen as an important endorsement of the "Bitcoin Treasury Strategy." Metaplanet is often referred to by the market as the "Asian version of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)," focusing on a corporate treasury management model centered around Bitcoin. NBIM currently holds approximately 0.3% of Metaplanet's shares and has explicitly expressed support for Bitcoin as a legitimate and long-term asset allocation tool for corporations. This statement indicates that NBIM is no longer just a passive holder but actively supports the company's aggressive capital strategy centered around Bitcoin.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) has recently shown a clear weakening trend. Against the backdrop of the overall crypto market under pressure, the price risk continues to grow. Over the past week, NEAR has declined approximately 11.4%, with a drop of 5.7% in the last 24 hours alone. During Bitcoin's brief rebound above $90,000 and subsequent quick retreat to around $85,700, market sentiment shifted back to defensive, with small and mid-cap tokens like NEAR bearing the brunt. A single-day decline of over 5% in Bitcoin significantly impacted the already fragile risk appetite, causing NEAR traders' expectations to turn more bearish. Although NEAR futures open interest temporarily increased by 13% on Monday, rising from $122 million to $138 million, spot trading volume and funding rates also briefly rose, indicating some short-term funds attempting to bet on a rebound. However, this momentum did not last, and the price quickly weakened again.

Golden Finance reports that Cryptoquant analysts point out that the current macro market is overall neutral, with risk appetite supported by the US dollar index. The stock market is releasing localized safe-haven signals, with a moderate level of risk, and no clear trend has emerged in the market yet.

According to Farside Investors data, on December 17th, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total net inflow of approximately $457 million, indicating a clear signs of recovery in institutional funds after two consecutive days of outflows. In the previous two days, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net outflow of about $635 million, and as of now this week, there is still a net outflow of approximately $177 million. Specifically, the Fidelity-backed spot Bitcoin ETF—FBTC—became the biggest beneficiary of the day, attracting about $391 million in funds, significantly leading the market. Its total net asset value has increased to approximately $12.4 billion, further consolidating its core position in the Bitcoin ETF camp.

Amid the overall correction in cryptocurrency-related stocks, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has once again chosen to go against the trend. According to the latest disclosed trading documents, Ark Invest significantly increased its holdings in crypto concept stocks such as BitMine, COIN, and Bullish through multiple exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wednesday, demonstrating its continued confidence in the industry's long-term prospects. Data shows that on Wednesday, Ark Invest bought approximately 10.56 million USD worth of BitMine stock through three ETFs. Previously, the firm had purchased about 17 million USD worth of BitMine stock on Monday, with continuous buying in a short period, indicating a clear action. BitMine is regarded as the world's largest Ethereum asset management company, with its business highly tied to the ETH ecosystem development.

Jito Foundation has decided to return to the United States due to clarified U.S. digital asset regulations. CEO Lucas Bruder pointed out that Jito was forced to operate overseas after being cut off by banks during "Operation Chokepoint 2.0." He believes that the passage of the latest regulations is the driving force behind the return.

Indian Civilian Party Member Raghav Chadha proposes the enactment of a "Tokenization Act" aimed at leveraging blockchain technology to promote financial modernization, achieve fractional ownership of assets, and thereby foster financial democratization. He emphasizes the need to establish regulatory sandboxes and clear legal definitions to avoid the risk of India facing data and economic sovereignty loss.

Spain is accelerating the implementation of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), delineating the boundaries for the development of crypto platforms under the new regulatory framework. The Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) recently released a detailed Q&A guide, clarifying the transitional arrangements and compliance pathways for Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs) operating legally in Spain. The core stance is very clear: either comply with MiCA or cease operations. According to MiCA regulations, EU member states can grant a transition period of up to July 1, 2026, to crypto companies. Spain has chosen to adopt this maximum deadline. This means that all crypto exchanges, wallet service providers, and other crypto service platforms operating in Spain must obtain formal authorization under MiCA before July 1, 2026, or they will be prohibited from continuing their operations.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has shown a significant shift in its regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies in its latest 2025 annual report. In this 86-page report, FSOC officially removed digital assets from the "Systemic Financial Risk" watchlist, marking a fundamental change in the U.S. regulators' core assessment of the crypto industry. Unlike the 2024 report, which focused on stablecoin run risks and market confidence shocks, the 2025 report no longer emphasizes risk warnings but instead highlights regulatory clarity, compliance frameworks, and the actual financial functions of digital assets. FSOC explicitly states that distributed ledger technology has practical value in enhancing transaction efficiency and security. A key background for this shift is the passage of the "Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act) in July 2025. This legislation provides a clear framework for stablecoin issuance, reserve management, and risk control, and is seen as a crucial institutional foundation for reducing financial stability risks and promoting stablecoin innovation in the United States.

a16z submits comments to the CFTC on the PWG Digital Asset Report, advocating for clear registration requirements for blockchain and smart contracts, establishing innovative exemptions or customized registration pathways to eliminate uncertainties caused by enforcement confusion, and promote innovation in the United States.

As Bitcoin's price has fallen approximately 30% from the peak of around $126,200 and is hovering near the key support level of $85,000, concerns about a further decline to the $70,000 region are intensifying. However, on-chain data presents a different intriguing picture: institutional funds and high-net-worth investors are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin at the fastest rate in 13 years. Glassnode data shows that medium-sized holders (commonly referred to as "Bitcoin sharks") holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC increased their total holdings from approximately 3.521 million to 3.575 million BTC over the past week, a net increase of about 54,000 BTC. This accumulation speed has reached a new high since 2012, reflecting a clear pattern of buying the dip.

As the end of the year approaches, the cryptocurrency market is showing clear bearish signals. Data indicates that among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, 75 have fallen below their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a significant overall weakening of the trend. In contrast, only 29 stocks in the Nasdaq are in the same technical weak zone, highlighting the relative weakness of the crypto market. TradingView data shows that Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $126,000 in early October and has since been declining, currently around $87,000, signaling a significant withdrawal of funds from the crypto market. Since the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are often considered key indicators of medium- and long-term trends, a simultaneous break below both averages usually indicates a trend reversal to the downside and may trigger further selling pressure.

Latest reports indicate that since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has significantly slowed its enforcement efforts in the cryptocurrency industry. According to The New York Times, the SEC has withdrawn, paused, or dismissed nearly 60% of cryptocurrency-related cases, a change that has garnered widespread attention within the industry. The report notes that while enforcement actions in traditional financial markets continue, since January this year, cryptocurrency companies have become the most affected group. Numerous investigations into crypto projects and trading platforms have been halted or canceled, indicating a shift in regulatory focus. Among the most notable cases are the longstanding lawsuits the SEC previously filed against Ripple Labs and major centralized exchanges (CEX). Both landmark cases have been substantially withdrawn. The New York Times also mentioned that the SEC is no longer actively pursuing any companies with known connections to Trump, sparking discussions about the motivation behind the regulatory changes.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin prices have fallen below the $86,000 mark for the first time in two weeks, indicating that market downside pressure is intensifying. On Monday, Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.7%, touching a low of $85,171, and then slightly rebounded above $86,000 during early Asian trading on Tuesday. However, overall, Bitcoin has retreated about 30% from its previous all-time high of over $126,000, and investor sentiment has noticeably weakened. Analysts point out that Bitcoin has recently been approaching the lower end of its previous trading range. Every rebound encounters selling pressure from investors who entered near historical highs in early October, creating clear resistance above. FalconX senior derivatives trader Bohan Jiang stated that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating sharply between $85,000 and $94,000, with overall trading interest in the crypto market remaining low and trading volume staying at subdued levels.

A recent research report released by Bank of America indicates that amid a fundamental shift in regulatory attitudes, the US banking industry is entering a multi-year "on-chain" transition phase. As the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Federal Reserve begin to establish clear regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and tokenized deposits, cryptocurrency policies are moving from discussion to implementation. The research team led by analyst Ebrahim Poonawala stated that a recent series of regulatory approvals and rule proposals signify that the US financial system is laying the institutional groundwork for real-world assets and payments to go on-chain. OCC has recently conditionally approved five digital asset companies to obtain national trust bank licenses, which is seen as an important step toward the federal-level official acceptance of stablecoin issuance and crypto asset custody. These activities must be conducted in the form of trust services and meet strict requirements for liquidity, compliance, and risk management.

The Avalanche Foundation has established a DLT Foundation at the Abu Dhabi Global Market, aiming to support the adoption and ecosystem development of Web3 applications in the Middle East and North Africa region. By integrating existing initiatives through a clear regulatory framework, it seeks to enhance transparency and efficiency.

BlockBeats News, December 15 — According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate at the January meeting is as high as 78%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 21%. The market consensus is clear: although inflation has eased, the Federal Reserve typically waits for economic data to stabilize before taking action, making it unlikely to make a significant turn early in the year. However, the account thiswaysir's actions are the exact opposite: he is contrarily betting $30,000 that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in January, and even holding 100,000 "lottery positions" betting on a 50 basis point cut. This is not the first time he has bet against market consensus. In mid-November, when the mainstream market sentiment believed that a recession and falling inflation would force the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points (with a probability once as high as 80%), this

After the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, there was a noticeable shift in global capital flows. In addition to the rate cut, the Federal Reserve also announced it will repurchase approximately $40 billion of short-term government bonds (T-bills) each month, further lowering real interest rates and injecting liquidity into the market. From a policy perspective, this combination should be favorable for risk assets, but the market's actual reaction has shown clear divergence. The rate decision was largely in line with expectations, with 3 out of 10 members voting against. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly stated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, after which the policy may enter a period of observation, with a renewed focus on inflation control. Against this backdrop, markets are re-evaluating the future monetary policy path, especially regarding the stance of the new dovish-leaning Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Hasset, whose previous hints that the number of future rate cuts could exceed three have, in the short term, increased market uncertainty.

Cardano (ADA) prices are still under downward pressure, with the overall trend remaining below key moving averages in a consolidation pattern. Technical indicators and order book data both show that market sentiment is cautious, and there is still no clear momentum for a short-term reversal. From the market perspective, the spot ADA price hovers around $0.40, with limited intraday volatility, and gains are approximately in the 0–1% range. The 24-hour trading volume is about $500 million to $600 million, with major CEX platforms contributing around 100 million ADA in trading volume, indicating decent liquidity but no significant volume surge. Technical analysis indicates that after recent declines, Cardano's price has stabilized somewhat, but the overall structure remains bearish. The price continues to trade below short-term and medium-term moving averages, which are trending downward, suggesting that the recent rebound is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Until ADA effectively recovers these key moving averages, upward potential will remain limited by sellers.

Monero (XMR) experienced a slight correction last weekend, with the price declining approximately 4.09%, pulling back from around $419. This correction began in the $418–$420 range, which has repeatedly served as a key resistance level over the past six weeks. Previously, the market widely expected XMR to test $420 or even $450 after re-confirming the $360 support level. Currently, the $420 target has been validated, but the upward momentum is clearly lacking. From a weekly chart perspective, Monero still maintains an overall bullish pattern. After dropping below $367 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level), the price quickly stabilized and rebounded to around $419. Meanwhile, the RSI remains around 59, indicating that the medium-term momentum still favors bulls. However, the volume indicator OBV has issued a warning signal. Over the past 7 months, the OBV peaks have been steadily declining, forming a clear bearish divergence with the price, suggesting that the rally has not been supported by strong genuine demand. Such a structure is often difficult to sustain over the long term.

PANews December 13 News, according to CoinDesk, Japan's last interest rate hike caused the yen to rise, triggering a sharp increase in market risk aversion sentiment, which led to Bitcoin prices falling from about $65,000 to $50,000. However, the upcoming yen interest rate hike may not trigger risk aversion in the crypto market for two reasons: First, speculators currently hold a net long (bullish) position in yen, making it unlikely for them to react quickly to the Bank of Japan's rate hike; second, Japan's government bond yields have continued to climb this year, with both short-term and long-term yields hitting multi-decade highs. Therefore, the upcoming rate increase reflects that official interest rates are catching up with market trends. Meanwhile, this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points while introducing liquidity measures, bringing rates to their lowest level in three years. Overall, these factors indicate a clear unwind of yen arbitrage positions and a year-end risk aversion sentiment.

Golden Finance reports that the crypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial has officially announced that it has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to clear fully collateralized swap contracts, enabling it to offer prediction market services. Currently, this service will focus on two main areas: cryptocurrencies and economic events. In addition, the exchange's clearinghouse, Bitnomial Clearinghouse, can also provide broader categories of clearing services to partner prediction markets, thereby gaining collateral liquidity between USD and cryptocurrencies.

XRP price trend is entering a critical phase. As the descending triangle pattern tightens further, market concerns about a potential decline are intensifying. At press time, XRP trading price is at $2.03, up slightly by 1% in the past 24 hours, but the overall momentum remains weak. Over the past week, XRP has traded within a range of $1.99 to $2.17, located at the tip of the descending triangle, with space clearly narrowing, indicating an imminent breakout. From a longer-term perspective, XRP has fallen 14% in the past month, retreating about 45% from the July all-time high of $3.65. Trading activity has also decreased, with spot daily trading volume dropping to $3.08 billion, a 26% decrease day-over-day, and the derivatives market showing a similar weakening trend. According to CoinGlass, futures trading volume has declined by 25%, with open interest slightly down to $3.69 billion. When both spot and derivatives volumes decline simultaneously, it often indicates that market participants are avoiding risk and waiting for clear directional signals.

Bitcoin has recently been lacking upward momentum, with a clear bearish flag pattern appearing on the technical chart, triggering market concerns about the next target price level. Several traders believe that Bitcoin's short-term risks are rapidly accumulating, and if it breaks below a key support level, it could trigger a deeper correction, with a target price of USD, potentially extending down to the @E5@ USD region. Trader Roman emphasized in the latest analysis that Bitcoin faces an approximately 17% potential decline. He pointed out that since Bitcoin hit a low near USD, the price has failed to rebound effectively and has been oscillating within an upward channel. This kind of pattern is highly likely to develop into a bearish flag. Under this pattern, Bitcoin may continue to make lower lows after a brief rebound.