Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin may fall another 80%. Is the altcoin season really coming?

Recently, the crypto market has heated up again due to Peter Brandt's pessimistic predictions about Bitcoin. This veteran trader with decades of trading experience pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced a series of logarithmic parabolic rises over the past 15 years, often followed by deep pullbacks, with declines generally around 80%. In his view, the current cycle is not over, and this round of adjustment may even last until 2029, with the next clear bull run peak potentially occurring in September 2029.

In this context, the price of Bitcoin has long hovered below $90,000, and the market's risk appetite has significantly declined. Some investors have begun to shift their focus from Bitcoin to the altcoin market, leading to an increase in discussions about the “altcoin season is coming.” As Bitcoin's dominance weakens, capital rotation is believed to potentially benefit mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana.

Institutional views are showing divergence. Asset management firms like Bitwise expect Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana to reach new highs in 2026, and believe that the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem will continue to attract funds from both institutions and retail investors. However, Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research, warns that the future altcoin market may become more concentrated, with only “blue-chip encryption assets” that possess fundamental and liquidity advantages likely to attract funding, making it difficult for the market to replicate a broad-based rally.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes believes that the altcoin market is not a periodic event, but rather a long-term structural opportunity. Overall, with the expectation of increasing downside risk for Bitcoin, although the altcoin market has imaginative potential, the differentiation and selection difficulty will also significantly increase. For investors, focusing on the Bitcoin cycle, the rotation of altcoins, and the market rhythm before and after 2026 may become the key to the next stage of encryption investment.