Montreal Bank: US Core CPI Data May Unexpectedly Rise

Jinshi data November 13th news, Montreal Bank believes that any significant impact of the recent storm on inflation data may be limited, which means that the market’s reaction to any deviation in core inflation may be obvious. The market generally predicts that this month’s core CPI monthly rate will rise steadily by 0.3%, and tends to have a possible unexpected rise. A reading of 0.4% or higher will cause waves, especially against the backdrop of Trump’s recent election. Logically, if inflation has already begun to rise before the Republican victory, the impact of tariffs and potential trade conflicts may further exacerbate inflationary momentum. However, although the target tariff may not push up prices, this assumption is currently affecting the sentiment of the US Intrerest Rate market. In view of this market prospect, the bank expects that the unexpected rise in inflation data in October may have a significant impact on US bond yields, and inflation data is the most direct factor that may push the 10-year US bond yield to exceed the 4.50% threshold.