Forecast market activity: March transaction count year-over-year grew 2,838%, and it’s a geopolitical risk monitoring tool that is correlated with BTC price movements

Gate News Message, April 6, Sygnum Bank Chief Investment Officer Fabian Dori said that during the escalation of the Iran conflict, the prediction market is becoming a real-time tool that traders use to monitor macro risks. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have seen rapid repricing of the probabilities of whether the United States will escalate the conflict, and these move in direct correlation with Bitcoin price trends. Prediction markets price clear outcomes of specific events using real money, and for crypto markets driven by binary event catalysts such as regulation, geopolitics, and protocol upgrades, they provide differentiated signals.

Data shows that the prediction market had about 191 million trades in March, up 2,838% year over year, and monthly notional trading volume rose to $23.9 billion. Some professional trading teams have incorporated prediction markets into their macro analysis framework, using them in parallel with indicators such as funding rates, options structure, and capital flows to formulate trading strategies before events occur.