Iran's high ceasefire conditions trigger market volatility, with Bitcoin rebounding to $71,300

Gate News: Iran has made an initial ceasefire proposal, including war reparations, formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, and no restrictions on its ballistic missiles, but U.S. officials say these conditions are “unrealistic.” Meanwhile, Washington is deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East, heightening Tehran’s suspicion of the peace offer and viewing diplomatic efforts as possibly just a pretext for military escalation.

Axios reports that Iranian officials have told mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey that the U.S. military movements have undermined the credibility of negotiations. In the coming days, several fighter jet squadrons and parts of the 82nd Airborne Division will arrive in the region. The Cobessi letter states that even if talks continue, the conflict could last another two to three weeks. Senior Iranian military advisor Mosen Rezaei emphasized that Tehran seeks full compensation for war damages.

The energy markets are significantly affected. Brent crude oil prices rebounded above $100 per barrel on Wednesday, currently at $98.87. Goldman Sachs warns that if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, oil prices could surpass the 2008 high of $147.50 per barrel, and has raised its 2026 Brent forecast from $77 to $85. Saxo Bank analyst Olle Hansen notes that the commodity supply crunch is intensifying, including refined oil, natural gas, helium, and fertilizers.

Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are also volatile. Gold and silver prices have risen, indicating recent sell-offs are mainly liquidity-driven. Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from a weekly low of $68,000 to $71,300. Rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations, causing Goldman Sachs to delay its next Fed rate cut from June to September. Tightening monetary conditions have directly suppressed risk assets, and Bitcoin has shown similar volatility during the conflict.

Although negotiations are ongoing, the conditions proposed by Iran have been rejected by Washington. U.S. military deployments are accelerating, and the path to de-escalation remains narrow. Global investors are closely watching Middle East developments and their potential impacts on energy and crypto markets.