Analysts: Bitcoin and Gold Diverge, Central Banks and Retail Investors' Savings Logic "Decouples"

Stephen Coltman, Head of Macroeconomics at 21Shares, a provider of cryptocurrency ETPs, pointed out that the divergence in price trends between Bitcoin and gold in 2026 can be explained by the vastly different buyer structures of central banks and retail investors. Gold reached a high of nearly $5,600 in January before falling back to around $4,497; meanwhile, Bitcoin remained relatively stable under macro pressures, currently trading at about $68,106.

Central Bank Gold Buying vs. Individual Holdings: Buyer Structures Determine Divergent Trends

Coltman told Cointelegraph that over the past three years, the rise in gold prices was mainly driven by central bank purchases rather than inflows from retail or institutional investors. He emphasized that physical gold currently holds greater geopolitical strategic significance, serving as the preferred asset for sovereign entities to store wealth securely and avoid interference from competitors. This means that gold trading behavior is more sensitive to deteriorating international relations.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s ownership structure is primarily composed of individuals rather than financial institutions. For users whose traditional banking infrastructure is incapacitated during crises, Bitcoin offers an alternative lifeline that does not rely on intermediaries. Coltman noted that because these two assets serve different needs, their negative correlation implies that holding both can help diversify risk exposure.

How Geopolitical Conflicts Reinforce the Roles of These Assets

Following the outbreak of conflict between the US and Iran, missile and drone attacks by Iran led to the closure of exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, exposing the fragility of traditional financial infrastructure. Coltman pointed out that this served as a “sharp reminder”—in wartime or emergency situations, the ability to access assets around the clock without interruption has irreplaceable real-world value.

Core Differences in Asset Roles Under Geopolitical Tensions

Gold: Relies on physical storage and institutional clearing systems; more susceptible to geopolitical disruptions during wartime; central bank operations are highly strategic and exclusive.

Bitcoin: Decentralized, permissionless, available 24/7; ensures accessibility of personal assets when traditional infrastructure is disrupted.

Risk Profile Differences: Gold mainly faces sovereign policy and geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin faces regulatory frameworks and correlations with tech stocks.

Diverging Analyst Opinions: Who Will Outperform in the Next Three Years?

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin may outperform gold in the next three years. She explains this with a “pendulum effect”—if gold has already surged significantly in the previous cycle, the law of diminishing returns in the next cycle could give Bitcoin more room to catch up.

Ray Dalio holds the opposite view. He argues that Bitcoin cannot challenge gold’s store-of-value status in the short term because it still exhibits high correlation with tech stocks and is considered a risk asset. Gold, as a reserve asset for central banks, is deeply embedded in the global banking system, making its structural position difficult to replace quickly. The fundamental disagreement between these perspectives reflects the market’s lack of consensus on Bitcoin’s long-term positioning.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why do Bitcoin and gold show clear divergence in trends in 2026?
Stephen Coltman from 21Shares states that gold’s price movements are mainly driven by central bank buying and are highly sensitive to geopolitical deterioration; Bitcoin, centered around individual holders, offers irreplaceable accessibility during disruptions of traditional financial infrastructure. These different service targets lead to divergent trends under the same macro pressures.

Q: Why did gold drop sharply from nearly $5,600 per ounce?
After reaching a historic high of nearly $5,600 in January 2026, gold prices fell sharply to about $4,497 due to intense macro volatility, breaking key technical supports such as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). Analysts believe this correction has reignited debates about gold’s long-term role as a store of value and its relative performance compared to Bitcoin.

Q: What are the core differences between Lyn Alden and Ray Dalio’s views on Bitcoin and gold?
Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin could outperform gold in the next cycle due to the “pendulum effect,” which causes rotation between the two assets—after a significant rise in gold, its upside is limited. Ray Dalio, however, argues that Bitcoin’s high correlation with tech stocks and its risk asset nature mean it will struggle to challenge gold’s entrenched role within the global central bank reserve system in the short term.