On March 3rd, it was reported that the prediction market Kalshi sparked controversy over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Its “death clause” details resulted in minimal profits for traders betting on his removal. Traders initially believed that betting on Khamenei’s ousting before February 28th was a guaranteed win, but Kalshi emphasized that only death or other official causes of death count as a formal removal, and settlement will be based on the last trading price before the death news was confirmed. The CEO of Kalshi later apologized to users and announced refunds of related fees.
As the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iran, trading volume in prediction markets surged, attracting global attention. On Polymarket’s international platform, six new users bet on Khamenei’s removal, with total transactions reaching $1.2 million. However, since Polymarket is not regulated by the US and lacks KYC and AML procedures, risks of regulatory issues and insider trading are difficult to control. Kalshi requires users to verify their identities, improving market regulation, but the “death clause” still caused dissatisfaction among users.
Analysts point out that the challenges faced by prediction markets are not only ethical debates but also balancing commercialization with compliance. Markets lacking strict KYC and AML procedures limit institutional investor participation, making normalization difficult. US Senator Chris Murphy criticized some individuals for potentially profiting from war and death, calling for legislation to ban such trading, while a White House spokesperson denied involvement by the Trump team.
This incident highlights the risks and regulatory gaps in prediction markets concerning sensitive political events, and serves as a reminder for traders to pay attention to contract details and settlement rules to avoid unexpected losses due to clause omissions.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Stripe Co-Founder: Kalshi Integrating Stripe Connect
Golden Finance reports that on March 24, recently Stripe co-founder John Collison and Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang had a dialogue with Kalshi's two founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. In the video conversation, the Stripe co-founder confirmed that Kalshi is integrating Stripe.
金色财经_1h ago
Gate Officially Integrates Polymarket, CEX First to Integrate Prediction Market Free Beta
Gate officially integrates Polymarket, becoming the first centralized exchange platform globally to integrate it, and launches a dedicated portal in the Gate App. Users can participate in prediction trading through USDT in their spot accounts without on-chain operations, and transaction fees are waived during the public beta period. It offers both prediction and trading modes to meet different needs and supports diverse event types and trading methods. In the future, it will expand the event scope and enhance price discovery functionality.
MarketWhisper2h ago
Polymarket Data: 34% probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before April 15
Gate News reported that on March 24, the latest Polymarket data showed that market bets on a US-Iran ceasefire by March 31 stood at 14%, by April 15 at 34%, and by May 31 at 57%. The prediction market's trading volume has exceeded $39.85 million.
GateNews2h ago
Bitgo, Susquehanna Crypto Open OTC Gateway to Prediction Markets for Institutions
Bitgo and Susquehanna Crypto have teamed up to give institutional clients a new route into prediction markets without forcing them through retail rails or asset liquidation.
Bitgo Enables $100K+ Prediction Market Trades via OTC Desk
The partnership, announced Tuesday in New York and shared with B
Coinpedia3h ago
US Bipartisan Senators Join Forces! Propose Legislation to Ban "Prediction Market" Sports Betting
U.S. Senator proposes new legislation aimed at prohibiting federally regulated prediction market platforms from offering sports event and casino-style game contracts, marking the first restriction of such markets. The bill indicates that prediction markets should be regulated by state governments, reflecting a jurisdictional dispute between regulators and various states. Despite facing legal challenges, prediction markets continue to attract capital investment.
区块客5h ago
BitGo, Susquehanna Crypto offering institutional OTC access to prediction markets
BitGo Prime and Susquehanna Crypto have partnered to offer institutional clients OTC access to prediction market trades using crypto as collateral. The service targets hedge funds and wealthy investors, allowing event-driven contract transactions without cash conversion, while addressing regulatory concerns and improving infrastructure for institutional trading.
CoinDesk5h ago
