K33: Bitcoin enters the "late-stage bear market" zone, with market signals similar to the end of 2022

PANews February 18 News, according to The Block, research and brokerage firm K33 states that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivatives positions, and ETF capital flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a possible prolonged consolidation rather than a quick rebound. K33 research director Vetle Lunde said that their proprietary indicators show “stunning similarities” between the current situation and September and November 2022 (near the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often followed by long periods of consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% under similar conditions.

Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 28% since January, funding rates have been negative for 11 consecutive days, open interest has dropped below 260,000 BTC, and long positions are being liquidated. Spot trading volume has decreased 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October’s peak, but 93% of the peak exposure remains, indicating institutions are mainly reducing exposure rather than fully exiting. The fear and greed index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far below the 95% during extreme greed, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, with current entry points attractive but patience required.