The probability of the Republican Party winning the Senate in the midterm elections drops to a new low of 60%

World Baseball Classic Just Ended! MLB Designates Polymarket as Exclusive Partner, Joins Forces with CFTC to Combat Match Fixing

MLB has reached an exclusive partnership with blockchain prediction market Polymarket, gaining rights to access league data and signing a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to maintain game integrity. The collaboration comes in response to a pitcher bribery scandal at the league last year. Despite the growing popularity of prediction markets, which has raised concerns about ethics and insider trading, U.S. lawmakers have pushed forward with relevant regulatory legislation.

MLB Partners with Polymarket! New Era for Prediction Markets?

Major League Baseball (MLB) announced a partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket to serve as the official prediction market exchange, and jointly established risk control measures to limit high-risk markets. The move aims to ensure game integrity and promote the development of legal prediction markets, while raising concerns about manipulation risks and legal positioning. Supporters believe that through cooperation, clear rules can be established and market transparency can be improved.

4 smart money addresses deposited $13,400 on Polymarket, betting that the US will not escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz this month

On the prediction market Polymarket, four addresses collectively placed $13,400 in bets predicting that the United States will not escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31st. Currently, this option has a 20% probability. The U.S. military has deployed troops to the Middle East, but the Energy Secretary indicated it is not yet prepared to provide escorts.

New Wallet Bets $44,000 Iran Still Controls Halke Island This Month, Market Probability 91.5%

Gate News reports that on March 20, according to monitoring data, a newly created three-day wallet staked $44,000 on Iran maintaining control of Kharg Island this month, with the current market probability at 91.5%. It is understood that Kharg Island is a core oil export hub in the northern Persian Gulf for Iran, handling over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports and holding irreplaceable strategic value for Iran's economy and global energy supply chains.

Polymarket Launches NCAA March Madness Perfect Prediction Market, Kalshi Offers $1 Billion Prize

On March 20th, Polymarket launched a market for "Perfect NCAA March Madness Predictions," which currently has no bets placed. Previously, Kalshi announced the launch of a "Perfect Prediction Challenge," encouraging users to predict the results of NCAA events, with the winner receiving a $1 billion prize.

Two smart money addresses invested $9,700, betting that the U.S. will not invade Iran this year

On March 20, a prediction market showed two high-win-rate addresses invested $9,700 in the "Will the US military invade Iran?" event, selecting "No." The current probability for "No" in this event is 40%. Trump stated during a meeting with Japan's Prime Minister that he would not deploy US military forces, while the Defense Secretary reiterated US military objectives. Trader behavior indicates short-term arbitrage rather than betting on the actual occurrence of the event.