The escalation of the US-Iran situation suppresses risk appetite; Bitcoin faces a test at the $96,000 level

January 15 News, affected by Middle East geopolitical uncertainties, global risk assets are under pressure overall. Bitcoin, after a strong rebound earlier this week, has entered a consolidation phase. On Thursday, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $96,200, rising slightly by about 1% within 24 hours, but market attention to whether it can hold the key support level of $96,000 has noticeably increased.

From a macro perspective, U.S. President Trump signaled the possibility of delaying military action against Iran, easing tensions in the short term and prompting the first decline in oil prices in six trading days. However, this change did not significantly boost overall risk appetite; precious metal prices retreated from highs, Asian stock markets edged lower, and U.S. stock index futures weakened due to pressure from tech stocks.

The crypto market previously performed well. The overall market cap increased nearly 5% in a single day, reaching a high of approximately $3.25 trillion. Market sentiment indicators also improved, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to 48, hitting a new high since the end of 2025, indicating traders’ risk appetite has somewhat recovered.

On the technical side, FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that Bitcoin has broken through multiple technical resistance zones, theoretically leaving room to extend toward the $100,000 to $106,000 range. However, the current trend appears more like a consolidation after an increase rather than a new acceleration phase.

Structurally, the performance of mainstream tokens has begun to diverge. Ethereum remains around $3,300, Solana and BNB are relatively resilient, while XRP and Dogecoin have experienced about a 3% pullback. This uneven rotation often indicates short-term profit-taking by traders, with the market waiting for new driving factors.

Meanwhile, stablecoin prices remain stable, with no significant de-pegging of dollar-pegged assets like USDT, suggesting that liquidity pressures have not yet emerged. In the short term, traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can continue to hold above $95,000 amid a generally weak global stock market, to determine whether this rally is a consolidation phase or a sign of a temporary top.