Is the security fund's exit all because of this? NYT: Taiwan-U.S. tariffs to be announced this month, reduced to 15%, prompting TSMC to increase investment

The New York Times reports that the U.S. government is close to completing tariff negotiations with Taiwan, which will not only lower tariffs on Taiwanese goods but also require TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) to significantly expand its semiconductor manufacturing investments in the United States, further integrating Taiwan’s advanced chip capacity into the U.S. domestic supply chain. The report indicates that the process is now in the final stages of legal review and could be announced publicly as early as this month.

After the agreement is finalized, the overall tariffs on U.S. exports to Taiwan will be reduced from the current levels to 15%, aligning with the treatment of Japan, South Korea, and other Asian allies. The National Security Fund entered the market last April in response to the tariff war and just concluded yesterday after 279 days, the longest stabilization period in history. The timing suggests that they may have already had inside information.

(Will the National Security Fund exit cause a drop? 279 days of stabilization broke records, delivering a 50% return with gains of 6.5 billion)

Tariffs to drive investment: TSMC to double its production in Arizona

As one of the core conditions of this agreement, TSMC has committed to building at least five new wafer fabs in Arizona, nearly doubling its current footprint in the area. The specific investment schedule and capital expenditure have not yet been disclosed, but this move will make the U.S. the second most important manufacturing base for TSMC after Taiwan.

Currently, TSMC has completed one wafer fab in Arizona since 2020, with a second under construction, scheduled to start operation in 2028, and plans to build four more fabs in the future. Adding five more would represent a structural leap in its U.S. manufacturing footprint.

U.S. strategic shift: using trade policy to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home

Since April last year, when the U.S. launched high tariffs on multiple trade partners, the Trump administration has begun negotiating with allies to exchange “investment in the U.S.” for lower import tariffs. Japan and South Korea have pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into strategic industries such as shipbuilding, nuclear energy, electronics, and critical minerals.

Taiwan is a key node in the semiconductor sector. Nearly all advanced chips are monopolized by Taiwan, and these chips are core components for AI, cloud data centers, automobiles, and military systems. However, as Beijing’s sovereignty claims over Taiwan intensify and live-fire military drills are conducted frequently around the Taiwan Strait, U.S. companies and government officials are increasingly anxious about supply chain disruptions.

U.S. officials privately state that if Taiwan were to face conflict, the production of electronics, automobiles, and weapons systems worldwide could experience catastrophic disruptions. This is the fundamental reason why Washington is strongly urging TSMC to transfer key capacity to the U.S.

Did the National Security Fund’s exit all stem from this issue? The New York Times: Taiwan-U.S. tariffs to be announced this month, reduced to 15%, with TSMC increasing investment. The earliest report appeared on Chain News ABMedia.