Trump tariff ruling looms as $200b in duties, 4,500-page code hang in balance

A Supreme Court ruling on Learning Resources v. Trump could upend emergency tariffs that helped swell a 4,500‑page code, with $100b in revenue and risk markets at stake.
Summary

• The Harmonized Tariff Schedule has expanded to over 4,500 pages, with Chapter 99 alone running more than 3,300 pages of temporary, often emergency‑based tariff actions.
• Learning Resources v. Trump will test presidential tariff powers under IEEPA, potentially putting $100b in revenue and billions in possible importer refunds on the line.
• Equities, commodities and crypto have adopted defensive positioning as markets await the ruling, with BTC and ETH trading sideways after an early‑2026 rally.

The U.S. tariff system has expanded significantly during President Donald Trump’s second term, with the latest Harmonized Tariff Schedule reaching more than 4,500 pages, according to government documents. The volume represents an increase of over 100 pages from the 2025 edition and approximately 800 pages more than the 2017 baseline.

Trump tariff creates $200b in duties

The Yale Budget Lab estimates the effective consumer burden from tariffs stands at an average rate of 16.8 percent. Financial markets have exhibited caution in recent weeks as businesses and investors await a Supreme Court decision that could affect tariff policy.

Cryptocurrency markets, which rallied early in 2026, have stabilized in recent weeks. Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded mostly sideways since mid-December, while altcoin trading volumes have declined, according to market data.

Scott Lincicome, vice president at the Cato Institute’s Trade Policy Studies department, reported that the number of distinct tariff actions affecting major imports has increased from three in 2017 to at least 17 currently. In an analysis published late last year, Lincicome described the U.S. tariff code as “mind-numbingly difficult” to navigate, with an economic cost that is “likely staggering.”

Much of the expanded complexity appears in Chapter 99 of the tariff schedule, beginning on page 3,320, which outlines temporary modifications issued under various trade authorities. The section contains executive actions issued throughout 2025, assigning unique statistical reporting numbers to goods ranging from ignition coils to backhoes.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule as soon as Friday on Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, a case examining the limits of presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Approximately $100 billion in government revenue tied to tariffs is at stake in the decision.

The U.S. has collected more than $200 billion in duties since early 2025, according to government figures. The Tax Foundation estimates that 55 percent of that revenue stems from emergency tariffs whose legal status is under review. A ruling against the administration could require revisions to hundreds of tariff schedule entries. More than 30 revisions were made to the schedule in 2025.

The administration has stated it will replace any overturned tariffs with alternatives it describes as “legally durable.” If the Supreme Court rules certain duties were illegally collected, billions of dollars may need to be returned to importers, according to legal analysts. Costco has joined other businesses in filing suit against the administration to preserve eligibility for potential reimbursements.

Equity markets have shown restraint in recent weeks, and commodities traders have reduced risk exposure ahead of the ruling, according to market observers. Cryptocurrency markets, which rose during the first days of 2026 on institutional inflows, exchange-traded fund launches, and stablecoin adoption, have since cooled.

The ruling is expected to affect both tariff policy and financial markets, according to trade policy analysts. Businesses across sectors, including importers, technology manufacturers, and cryptocurrency firms, have adopted defensive positions while awaiting the decision.