XRP News: After a 31% weekly increase, buying pressure continues; Ripple bank license rumors add fuel to the fire?

At the beginning of 2026, Ripple (XRP) performed strongly, with its price soaring 31% over the past week, reaching a high of $2.39. Its gains temporarily surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum, pushing its market cap ranking up to fourth place. Behind this robust performance are multiple factors: exchange reserves hitting an 8-year low, continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs, and active technical breakthroughs.

Meanwhile, rumors about “Ripple obtaining a US National Trust Bank license” have spread rapidly within the community. Although not yet officially confirmed, they have sparked great enthusiasm among supporters. This article will analyze the sources of XRP’s current upward momentum, interpret the substantive impact of regulatory developments, and look ahead to its market prospects in the coming weeks.

Why is XRP Leading the Rally? Technical Breakthroughs and Capital Inflows Reveal Momentum

Entering 2026, the overall crypto market has rebounded, led by Bitcoin testing the $94,500 resistance level, and XRP is undoubtedly one of the most eye-catching assets in this rally. As of press time, XRP is priced at $2.39, up 11.2% in the past 24 hours, making it the second-best performer among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap on CoinMarketCap. More importantly, its weekly gain reaches 31%, significantly outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. This strength is not without signs; it is supported by a series of on-chain data and technical indicators.

First, from a supply perspective, the market is experiencing a “silent accumulation.” According to a previous report by AMBCrypto, XRP reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to their lowest point in 8 years, plunging 57% compared to October 2025. Exchange reserves are often viewed as “floating supply” available for immediate sell-off, and their sharp decline indicates potential selling pressure has weakened. While this does not directly equate to an immediate supply shock, limited supply during demand recovery will undoubtedly provide stronger support for price increases. This phenomenon aligns with the trend at the end of 2025, when XRP volatility was compressed and funds showed a continuous outflow from exchanges, collectively setting the stage for the current explosive rally.

Second, massive capital inflows are flowing through compliant channels. Spot ETFs serve as a crucial bridge connecting traditional capital with crypto assets, and their capital flows are highly indicative. Data from January 5 shows that XRP spot ETF net inflows reached $46.1 million in a single day. Among them, Franklin Dunden’s XRPZ and Bitwise’s XRP products recorded inflows of $21.76 million and $17.27 million respectively, making them major contributors. Notably, even during the market-wide fear and uncertainty in December 2025, XRP spot ETFs maintained steady inflows. This “contrarian capital attraction” demonstrates that some institutional investors hold firm long-term confidence in XRP, providing a solid buying foundation for this rally.

Key Data Overview for XRP Recently

Price Performance:

• Current Price: $2.39
• 24h Change: +11.2%
• Weekly Change: +31%
• Key Resistance Levels Recently Broken: $1.96 (local swing high), $2.28

On-chain and Capital Data:

• Exchange Reserves: down 57% from October 2025, hitting an 8-year low
• Spot ETF single-day net inflow (January 5): $46.1 million
• Current Market Cap: approximately $144 billion

Technical Indicators:

• Daily Chart: Bullish after breakout
• RSI: in overbought territory
• A/D Line: shows significant buying pressure since the start of the year

Finally, the technical picture has completed a key bull-bear reversal. From the daily chart perspective, XRP successfully broke through the local swing high near $1.96, flipping the overall structure from neutral or bearish to clearly bullish. Subsequently, the bulls launched a strong attack, quickly reclaiming the important resistance at $2.28. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, indicating potential short-term pullback risk, the market has not immediately experienced a sharp sell-off below $2.28. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, confirming genuine buying pressure from volume analysis, consistent with ETF capital inflows and declining exchange reserves.

Regulatory License Rumors Resurface, Market Reaction and Fundamental Support

As XRP’s price surges, a major rumor about Ripple’s regulatory progress has quickly fermented within the community. A user named “joker xrip” claimed that Ripple has become a “National Trust Bank,” describing it with highly provocative language like “inevitable development” and “wave of profits coming.” This message spread widely among XRP holders and was amplified by many community opinion leaders, sparking a new wave of market excitement. However, behind the hype, we need to calmly assess the actual implications of this regulatory update.

In fact, the origin of the rumor lies in the conditional approval granted by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in December 2025 for Ripple’s application for a National Trust Bank license. This is a significant development but not the final outcome. “Conditional approval” means Ripple must meet certain additional requirements set by the OCC before obtaining the license. It marks a step forward in the regulatory review process but is not an “end confirmation.” The circulated application form images, while seemingly authentic, lack official final approval documents. Many users, without careful verification, have participated in spreading this information, reflecting the community’s eager anticipation of positive news.

Nevertheless, the market’s excitement has a fundamental logic. If Ripple ultimately succeeds in obtaining the National Trust Bank license, it would have profound implications. First, it would greatly expand Ripple’s business scope and compliance capabilities in the payments sector, enabling it to connect with the global banking system as a trusted financial institution. Second, the license would allow for more comprehensive digital asset custody services, attracting institutional clients seeking compliant custody solutions. Most importantly, this progress would substantively strengthen XRP’s “utility narrative”—its role as an efficient bridge currency in cross-border payments—potentially fundamentally boosting market expectations for XRP’s long-term valuation. These potentialities, rather than an unconfirmed license, constitute the core of market excitement.

Historically, XRP’s community has been highly sensitive to regulatory signals. Past developments related to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit have caused sharp price fluctuations, creating a cycle of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” This time, the bank license rumor again confirms this pattern. Interestingly, despite the social media frenzy, XRP’s price did not immediately skyrocket after the rumor spread; the overall trend remains dominated by the technical and capital factors discussed earlier. This may indicate that seasoned traders, having experienced multiple market cycles, are becoming more cautious—some are waiting for more definitive official confirmation, and overall market sentiment has not been entirely hijacked by unverified news.

Resistance and Support Levels: Market Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Overall, XRP is likely to maintain a strong bullish trend in the coming weeks. The successful technical breakout, ongoing capital inflows, and tight exchange supply together form a favorable market structure for bulls. The A/D indicator and ETF capital flow data mutually validate that current buying pressure is real and sustained. However, investors should remain vigilant to potential risks. As a highly interconnected market, the movement of Bitcoin often influences the entire crypto space.

A key risk is a potential weakness in Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is challenging a critical resistance; if its upward momentum stalls and it experiences a significant correction, risk aversion could spread across the market, leading to capital outflows from altcoins, which would negatively impact XRP’s upward momentum. Although the daily RSI overbought condition does not imply an immediate decline, it warns that after a series of large gains, prices could enter a short-term consolidation or correction phase due to profit-taking. The key support at $2.28 will be the first line of defense for bulls; if it holds, the uptrend may continue. If not, the market might need more time to consolidate at high levels.

For market participants, a more nuanced approach is necessary. Aggressive trend traders might look for entry opportunities during short-term pullbacks near support levels, setting stop-losses below key supports. For long-term holders, whether this rally and the implied regulatory progress are enough to change their fundamental outlook on XRP is central to their decision-making. It’s important to note that the narrative of potential supply shocks caused by declining exchange reserves requires sustained strong spot demand to materialize; otherwise, its effect will be limited. Ultimately, the market needs to see real adoption of Ripple’s cross-border payment solutions or institutional allocations via ETFs to support XRP’s high market cap and possibly push it further upward.

What Is XRP’s Role in the Ripple Ecosystem?

For many new investors, the relationship between XRP and Ripple Inc. can be confusing. Simply put, XRP is an independent digital asset existing on the open XRP Ledger blockchain. Ripple is a private technology company, one of the early contributors to the XRP Ledger and a major holder of XRP, which uses the network and tokens to build its flagship product—RippleNet payment network. In RippleNet’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution, XRP is used as a “bridge currency” for cross-border payments, enabling fast, low-cost conversions between different fiat currencies. Therefore, market valuation of XRP is largely tied to its actual utility and adoption in cross-border payments. Any news about Ripple’s business expansion, new partnerships, or regulatory clearance can directly influence market expectations for XRP’s future demand, reflected in its price.

How Will Spot ETFs Reshape Crypto Asset Pricing?

The successful launch and ongoing capital inflows into XRP spot ETFs mark an important step toward mainstream financialization of crypto assets. They mean that traditional investors can gain exposure without directly buying or holding cryptocurrencies, via familiar brokerage accounts. This significantly lowers investment barriers and introduces a large incremental capital pool. Moreover, the daily creation/redemption mechanism of ETFs tightly links crypto asset pricing with Wall Street’s capital flows. To create ETF shares, issuers must buy real XRP in the spot market, turning actual demand into market buy pressure through this “physical backing” model. When analyzing the future trends of major crypto assets like XRP, tracking ETF capital flows has become an essential new dimension. It not only reflects market sentiment but also influences short-term supply-demand dynamics.