Bitcoin expected to decline by about 5% by the end of 2025: Losses and sell-offs intensify, market sentiment shifts to caution

As 2025 approaches its end, Bitcoin price trends remain weak, with an approximate 5% decline for the year, and market momentum has significantly diminished. Recently, Bitcoin has maintained narrow fluctuations, with volatility decreasing, which has increasingly frustrated investors expecting year-end gains. Stable prices have improved predictability but also reduced short-term trading appeal.

In the final weeks of the year, Bitcoin trading activity has cooled significantly. Due to holiday factors and the lack of clear positive catalysts, trading volume on major exchanges has generally declined, speculative funds have retreated, and market participants are shifting to conservative strategies. Data shows this is one of the calmest periods in the cryptocurrency market since the same time last year, reflecting investors’ preference to watch rather than add positions when the market direction is uncertain.

On-chain data further reveals market pressure. The adjusted realized loss indicator shows that Bitcoin’s daily loss-driven sell-off is approaching $300 million. Although current prices remain above the true market average of approximately $81,000, some investors who entered at cyclical highs are losing patience and choosing to exit at a loss. This ongoing loss-selling has tilted overall momentum slightly bearish, limiting short-term rebound potential.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,410, still holding above the key support level of $88,210. However, the full-year negative return has led the market to anticipate increased volatility at the beginning of 2026. Technically, the Bollinger Bands are noticeably narrowing, indicating price compression. Historical experience suggests that such formations often precede larger subsequent fluctuations.

If selling pressure gradually eases and the macro environment continues to support risk assets, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to break above the current range. Conversely, if sentiment deteriorates again, prices could fall back to $86,247 or even lower. Overall, Bitcoin at the end of 2025 is at a critical balancing point, with loss-driven selling, low volatility, and potential directional choices becoming the market’s key focus.