Over the past 30 days, Solana (SOL) has decreased approximately 12%. As 2026 approaches, market opinions on SOL’s January trend are clearly divided. Based on historical performance, ETF fund flows, and technical indicators, SOL is currently in a critical window of bullish and bearish battles.
Historically, January has always been a strong month for Solana. Statistics show that SOL’s average return in January is nearly 59%, with a median increase of about 22%. Moreover, when December ends with a decline, the probability of a rebound in January is higher. For example, in December 2022, SOL dropped nearly 30%, but in January 2023, it surged by 140%. In December 2024, it fell by 20.5%, followed by a 22.3% rebound in January 2025. This month, SOL has already fallen nearly 7%, which from a statistical perspective, provides a basis for a technical rebound.
ETF fund flows also lean towards a positive outlook. Since its launch, the Solana spot ETF has not experienced net outflows, recording approximately $13.14 million in net inflows in the past week, with total assets exceeding $755 million. This indicates that, amid Bitcoin and Ethereum facing capital retracement, some institutions still selectively allocate to SOL. However, analysts also point out that this does not mean the start of a “altcoin season,” but rather that capital is concentrated in a few high-liquidity mainstream altcoins.
Technical signals are more complex. The two-day chart shows that while SOL’s price hits new lows, the RSI indicator is rising, forming a bullish divergence, which suggests a potential reversal. At the same time, the 100-period EMA is approaching a death cross with the 200-period EMA. Once confirmed, this bearish crossover could extend short-term downward pressure into late December or early January 2026. The derivatives market remains cautious, with most large holders and whale accounts maintaining net short positions, while some savvy funds are beginning to slightly position for a long.
Key price levels are crucial. $129 is the current pivot point. If SOL can stay above $129 for two consecutive days, it may open upward space, with targets at $150 and $171 respectively. The $116 level below is an important support. If broken, it would break the historical pattern of “decline in December, rise in January,” indicating continued weakness.
Overall, Solana’s price forecast shows that the January 2026 trend depends on whether the $129 level can be effectively broken. With ETF fund inflows continuing and momentum indicators improving, SOL has rebound potential; conversely, a drop below $116 warrants caution for further correction.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Wormhole Responds to Drift Protocol Attack: Users’ Assets Are Not at Risk, Some Solana Cross-Chain Transfers May Be Delayed
Gate News message, on April 2, Wormhole posted on the X platform in response to the Drift Protocol attack incident. Wormhole said that user assets are not currently at risk, and the cross-chain bridge functionality can still be used normally. However, due to the built-in security mechanisms configured for Solana, some cross-chain transfers may experience delays. Wormhole’s core contributors have been in communication with the Solana ecosystem team and will continue to provide support as needed.
GateNews36m ago
Solana Foundation CPO: The Drift security incident is a case-by-case matter and does not indicate that there is a systemic problem in Solana DeFi
Solana Foundation Chief Product Officer Vibhu Norby responded to the Drift Protocol security incident, confirming that an attack occurred. The cause of the attack is still under investigation. The incident is related to operational security or social engineering, highlights the potential risks of multisig mechanisms, and says that this incident does not represent a systemic issue with Solana DeFi.
GateNews1h ago
Solana Yields Keep Falling — Why Investors Are Turning to This New BTC Reward Model
There is a particular frustration building among SOL holders in early 2026 that has nothing to do with price. Native staking yields, once a reliable source of passive income for long-term Solana believers, are compressing on a schedule that was written into the protocol from day one. Solana’s
CryptoPotato1h ago
Solana integrates SUI tokens, opening a brand-new trading pair to boost DeFi liquidity
Solana has officially integrated SUI tokens, launched new trading pairs, simplified cross-chain operations, and improved liquidity and trading efficiency, bringing new opportunities to the DeFi ecosystem. This integration helps execute large orders, attracts more users and developers, and drives growth in the crypto market.
GateNews2h ago
Within 90 minutes of the Drift security incident, USDT0 paused the Solana cross-chain communications network
All-chain stablecoin protocol USDT0 responded rapidly after the Solana Drift security incident, pausing its cross-chain communication network within 90 minutes. Tether’s CEO praised its team’s handling, while Z achXBT criticized Circle for not freezing USDC transfers.
GateNews3h ago
Solana critical turning point approaching! 37.7 million tokens of sell pressure is piling up, is SOL set to replicate a 21% surge or fall toward $64?
Solana’s recent price has been trading in a range around $84, and multiple technical indicators suggest a potential rebound. The current head-and-shoulders top structure is similar to early March, but selling pressure in the $85 to $88 range could limit upside. If it breaks above $89.82, it will turn bullish; conversely, if it falls below $78.77, it may test as low as $64. The market is in a stage of choosing direction.
GateNews5h ago
