Gold and silver hit new highs while Bitcoin fell by 21%. 10x Research: Gold aims for $4,830.

Traditional safe-haven asset gold is racing with the strongest momentum in decades. On December 24, spot gold prices soared to a historic high of $4,459.60 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of 67%, poised to achieve the strongest annual performance since 1979. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” has faded into the background, with prices hovering around $88,500, down 21% from the September peak. Quantitative research firm 10x Research has issued a highly confident buy signal for gold, targeting $4,830. This stark divergence in asset performance not only reveals year-end funding's risk aversion preference but also provokes profound reflections in the market about whether cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, truly possess “safe-haven” attributes during periods of macro turmoil.

Gold Soars: The Triple Forces Behind the Structural Bull Market

The recent record rise in gold is by no means a simple case of capital speculation; behind it lies a strong convergence of multiple structural forces. First, the expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy form the core macro background. The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and President Trump has also publicly advocated for a more accommodative monetary policy. The decline in interest rates directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset, enhancing its attractiveness. Pepperstone strategists point out that today's rise is largely driven by early positioning around the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, amplified by the thin liquidity at year-end.

Secondly, the continuously escalating geopolitical risks provide ongoing fuel for the safe-haven demand for gold. The current international situation is heating up in multiple areas: the United States has strengthened its oil blockade against Venezuela, Ukraine has attacked Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Mediterranean for the first time, and the tensions between China and Japan have yet to be resolved. Nicholas Frappell, the global institutional market director at Sydney ABC Refinery, also confirmed that the core concern of the market is the prospects of further interest rate cuts and geopolitical anxieties. In times of pervasive uncertainty, investors instinctively turn to gold as the ultimate store of value.

Ultimately, the revolutionary expansion of demand fundamentals has provided unprecedented resilience for gold prices. This round of buying has not only come from traditional central banks and ETF investors—global gold ETFs have recorded inflows for four consecutive weeks—but has also introduced new participants. Stablecoin issuers such as Tether, along with an increasing number of corporate finance departments, are incorporating gold into their balance sheets. The entry of this “new capital” has created a broader and more diverse demand base for gold, making its demand no longer solely reliant on the behavior of a single group, thereby significantly enhancing its price stability.

10x Research Gold Buy Signal Key Data

Signal Strength: 7.4 / 10 (One of the strongest readings in recent years)

Historical performance: After the same pattern for three months, the median return rate is +7.8%, with positive returns achieved in 90% of cases.

Operation Suggestion:

• Target Price: $4,830/ounce
• Stop Loss Price: 4,393 USD/ounce (approximately 2% downside risk)
• Suggested position: Up to 51.3% of the investment portfolio can be allocated.

Core judgment: This round of rise is driven by structural forces (decline in real interest rates, geopolitical risks, institutional demand), not speculative bubbles.

Bitcoin's Silence: Why is “Digital Gold” Absent in the Risk-Aversion Tide?

When gold shines, the once-hopeful “digital gold” Bitcoin appears unusually silent. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly around $88,500, having fallen more than one-fifth from its high of over $112,000 in September. While traditional safe-haven assets celebrate a festive atmosphere of new highs, the world of Crypto Assets is still waiting for the arrival of the “Santa Claus rally,” while the chimney seems particularly narrow.

This divergence in performance directly challenges the narrative of Bitcoin as a “safe-haven asset.” Theoretically, Bitcoin possesses characteristics such as scarcity, decentralization, and global circulation, which should attract funds during geopolitical tensions or concerns about currency devaluation. However, the reality is that in this round of risk aversion, funds seem to flow more decisively towards gold, which has thousands of years of consensus history. There may be multiple reasons behind this: first, as an emerging asset, Bitcoin's volatility is far higher than that of gold; in extreme risk events, capital seeking absolute safety may find it difficult to withstand intraday fluctuations of several percent; second, the structural adjustments in the crypto market have not yet been completed, and the deep correction since October has consumed bullish energy, leaving the market still in a phase of repair and bottoming.

In addition, the current crypto market is in a year-end liquidity drought. Many institutional traders have entered vacation mode, leading to insufficient market depth and widening bid-ask spreads. In such an environment, large funds find it difficult to establish or adjust positions without causing severe volatility, thus the market exhibits a lack of direction and narrow consolidation. Meanwhile, the gold market has received ample liquidity support due to the continuous entry of large buyers such as central banks and sovereign funds. The difference in liquidity environments between the two is also an important reason for the performance divergence.

Precious metals bloom across the board with the rise of the “new narrative”

It is worth noting that this round of bull market is not a solo performance of gold, but a comprehensive bloom of the entire precious metal family. Silver prices have approached the historical high of 70 dollars per ounce, with its recent rise benefiting from the influx of speculative funds, as well as the ongoing supply mismatch in major trading centers after the historic short squeeze in October. Platinum has risen for the eighth consecutive trading day, breaking through the 2,000 dollar mark for the first time since 2008, with an astonishing year-to-date increase of 124%. This is partly due to signs of tightening in the London market, where banks are storing more metals in the U.S. to avoid tariff risks, and partly due to the strong growth in demand from China.

The full-blown surge in precious metals reveals a fundamental narrative that transcends short-term speculation: a global rediscovery of “sound money” and “real assets.” Against the backdrop of soaring government debt levels and geopolitical conflicts eroding confidence in globalization, investors are engaging in what is known as “devaluation trades”—that is, exiting sovereign bonds and their denominated fiat currencies, fearing that their value will be eroded over time due to the ever-expanding debt. Assets with physical attributes and limited supply, such as gold and silver, naturally become beneficiaries of this mindset.

This “new narrative” poses a sharp question for the world of crypto assets: when investors are truly seeking a safe haven, do they choose a physical asset that has withstood the test of thousands of years and is physically unalterable, or a digital code that, despite its sophisticated technology, is still in its early stages, experiences extreme price fluctuations, and relies on internet and power infrastructure? The answer may not be binary, but it clearly indicates that for Bitcoin to truly rival gold's status as a safe haven, it still needs to make significant progress in market depth, volatility management, and broader global consensus.

Market Outlook: Reshaping Investment Logic Amid Divergence

Looking ahead to 2026, the bullish outlook for gold appears to remain solid. Goldman Sachs has set a benchmark target price of $4,900, noting that the risks are tilted to the upside. The logic behind this is that ETF investors are beginning to compete with central banks for the limited supply of physical gold. This structural shortage could continue to support prices.

For Bitcoin, the current divergence from gold may seem awkward, but it is not necessarily a conclusion about the long-term trend. The driving forces of Crypto Assets are not completely the same as those of gold; they rely more on internal factors such as technological innovation, increased adoption rates, and the halving cycle itself. As the regulatory framework in the U.S. becomes clearer (such as the new CFTC chairman taking office), and more traditional financial institutions (like JPMorgan exploring Crypto Assets trading services) enter the market, Bitcoin may regain the momentum for independent rises in 2026.

For investors, the current market conditions provide an opportunity to reassess asset allocation. First, it is essential to recognize that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is not constant. During specific periods (such as times of extreme market panic), they may decouple or even exhibit a negative correlation. Simply viewing Bitcoin as “digital gold” and completely replacing gold allocation may carry strategic risks. Second, in a portfolio, gold may be better suited to serve as a ballast and risk hedge, while Bitcoin leans more towards growth and innovation exposure. Both can be allocated differently based on individual risk preferences.

Ultimately, the historic new high of gold and the temporary silence of Bitcoin together depict a capital flow map during a period of macro turmoil. It reminds us that in the narrative competition of financial markets, the oldest stories can still hold the most power. And for the Crypto Assets that are writing their own history, the road to truly winning the crown of “digital gold” remains long and requires more time to prove.