Does Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 mean a bear market is coming? Key indicators send warning signals

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a cumulative correction of about 30% after falling below $90,000. Historically, such a correction is not uncommon during a bull market cycle, but what makes this decline notable is that the price has broken through multiple key technical support levels, sparking widespread discussions in the market about whether a “bear market has already arrived.”

Anonymous analyst Jackis believes that even if Bitcoin further drops to $70,000, it does not necessarily mean entering a typical bear market, but rather a volatile adjustment within the macro range of 2025. He points out that this decline is not driven by macro risks or deteriorating fundamentals but mainly results from position battles between seasoned investors and institutional investors, representing a temporary stagnation within the trend.

However, from a technical perspective, risk signals are accumulating. Historical data shows that during a bull market, Bitcoin usually maintains the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and sustained breaks below this line are often associated with bear market conditions. Since dropping from a high in mid-November, Bitcoin’s price has been trading below the 50-week EMA. If it cannot quickly recover this level, the long-term upward trend will face severe tests.

Some analyses suggest that the $60,000 to $70,000 range could become the “bear market bottom zone” based on the 50-week EMA. This price band has previously served as a critical breakout point after deep corrections and has repeatedly played a buffering role in historical cycles. Market participants, including former Ark Invest executive Chris Burniske, are also paying close attention to this range.

On-chain data also signals a bearish bias. The aSOPR indicator, which measures market profit and loss sentiment, is approaching 1. Once broken below, it has historically been accompanied by capitulative selling and confirmation of a phase bear market. Currently, about 7 million Bitcoin are in unrealized loss, approaching the levels of 8 to 10 million Bitcoin seen in past bear markets.

Overall, the current price and decline have put significant pressure on the market. If Bitcoin continues to fall into the $60,000 to $70,000 range, the market may face similar pressures and risks as in previous bear phases. Whether it truly enters a bear market will ultimately depend on whether it can recover key technical and emotional support levels in the future.