Wintermute: The altcoin market has stagnated, funds continue to flow back to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the market has entered a period of deep consolidation

Bitcoin regained its footing at $92,000 after more than $2 billion in liquidations, and the market focus quickly retracted from altcoins to mainstream assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The increase in capital concentration indicates that investors prefer high-certainty head crypto assets under the current macro uncertainty.

In terms of market capitalization performance, Bitcoin’s market share is stable at about 59.11%, while Ethereum’s remains at around 12.80%, showing a very narrow range of fluctuations. The latest report from Wintermute shows that both retail and institutional funds have rarely flowed into BTC and ETH at the same time, reflecting increased risk aversion in the market, with investors preferring to take selective risk exposure rather than chasing the high volatility of altcoins.

BTC plummeted $4,000 in the short term last Friday, mainly caused by cascading liquidations of more than $2 billion within an hour. However, the plunge did not trigger a secondary sell-off, indicating that the market is more inclined towards technical consolidation than trend reversal. Indicators such as narrowing of the basis and declining open interest also showed a decrease in leverage demand and a decline in overall risk appetite to a moderate level.

The next move in the market will be influenced by central bank events, with the Fed’s interest rate decision and the Bank of Japan meeting expected to trigger changes in cross-asset volatility at the end of the year. Wintermute pointed out that the implied volatility at the end of the year is high, and traders expect BTC to choose direction in the $85,000 to $100,000 range, but the price is still more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of macro benefits.

In this context, delta neutral and arbitrage strategies have become mainstream choices, with investors paying more attention to capital efficiency rather than directional bets. While some low-cap assets still have funding advantages, the current market clearly does not support the full altcoin market. To see altcoins resume their strong rise, three conditions need to be met: macro uncertainty subsides, Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels and stabilizes, and market risk appetite is clearly repaired. However, none of these conditions are in place in the short term.

On the whole, the altcoin market is difficult to reignite in the short term, mainstream funds continue to concentrate on Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the market is maintaining a typical high consolidation structure. （CoinDesk）