Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast! 2025 year-end target halved to $100,000; BTC hitting $500,000 may take another five years

Standard Chartered has slashed its year-end 2025 price target for Bitcoin from $200,000 to $100,000, citing that the two “dual engines” driving the market rally over the past two years have stalled: corporate treasury buying has cooled, and ETF capital inflows have disappeared.

(Previous context: Standard Chartered: RWA market to reach $2 trillion by 2028, with most value concentrated on Ethereum) (Background supplement: Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may “never” fall below $100,000 again, four major forces support BTC)

Due to Bitcoin’s significantly deteriorating performance and stalled upward trend in Q4 2025, Standard Chartered has sharply lowered its multi-year price forecasts for Bitcoin. According to the bank’s latest report released today (9th), it has dramatically revised its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target from the original $200,000 down to $100,000. While Standard Chartered still remains long-term bullish that Bitcoin could eventually reach $500,000, it now predicts this milestone will be reached in 2030, postponed from the previous target year of 2028.

Reason 1: End of the DAT frenzy Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated bluntly that the aggressive buying of Bitcoin for corporate balance sheets—previously led by companies like MicroStrategy (now Strategy)—“has come to an end.” These so-called “Digital Asset Treasuries” (DATs) were once a driving force behind Bitcoin price appreciation, but now, due to overvaluation, have paused further accumulation, causing the market to lose its strongest buying support.

Reason 2: US Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit record lows Another once-promising “leg”—institutional indirect buying of Bitcoin via ETFs—has also slowed dramatically. As of Q4 2025, ETF net inflows stand at only 50,000 BTC, not only far below expectations but also the lowest level since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.

By contrast, at the peak at the end of 2024, total quarterly inflows (ETF + corporate treasury) reached as high as 450,000 BTC—a cliff-like decline in buying momentum.

Reason 3: Fed policy uncertainty suppresses risk assets The report also notes that the US Federal Reserve is facing political pressure and an unclear monetary policy outlook, which in turn affects the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin. Although the market generally expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, investors are more focused on the Fed Chair’s guidance for the 2026 rate path, which will directly determine whether capital continues to flow into high-risk assets.

Notably, Kendrick emphasizes in the report that “this time really is different,” explicitly rejecting the old valuation models based on “post-halving bull markets.”

For investors, Standard Chartered’s report is undoubtedly a cold shower, but at the same time, it leaves room for imagining a long-term 5x gain for Bitcoin.

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〈Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast! Year-end 2025 target halved to $100,000, five more years to $500,000〉This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.