Despite the change in the Federal Reserve Chair, the market still does not expect a sharp rate cut next year.

BlockBeats News, December 9—according to analysis by Reuters columnist and financial journalist Jamie McGeever, although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s eight-year term will end in May next year and the market widely expects him to be replaced by Trump’s chief economic advisor Kevin Hassett, market pricing clearly shows that traders do not think a Hassett-led Fed would loosen monetary policy as aggressively as Trump has suggested. In fact, based on interest rate futures market pricing, by the end of next year, the expected amount of monetary easing in the market is barely 75 basis points. That’s only three 25-basis-point rate cuts—most likely with two occurring before Powell leaves office and just one after the new chairman takes office in the second half of 2026. The main reason may be that during the Fed chair transition, expected inflation will still hover around 3%, and when the new chair assumes office, the real interest rate could be close to zero—which means that the monetary policy environment is already very accommodative.