Ether faces a breakout opportunity as reserves on CEX drop to their lowest level since 2015

The amount of Ether held on centralized crypto exchanges has fallen to a record low, raising concerns about a potential “supply squeeze,” according to several experts.

Data from Glassnode shows that ETH balances on exchanges stood at just 8.7% last Thursday — the lowest level since the Ethereum network launched in mid-2015. By Sunday, this figure remained extremely low at 8.8%.

Since the beginning of July, the amount of ETH on exchanges has dropped by 43%, coinciding with a period when Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) funds ramped up their buying activity.

“ETH is quietly entering the most supply-constrained period in its history,” macro analysis platform Milk Road commented. “This is an unprecedented level.”

Compared to Ether, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges remains significantly higher, at 14.7%, according to Glassnode.

Milk Road explained that ETH is continuously flowing into “non-selling” channels, including staking, restaking, the layer-2 ecosystem, DATs, collateral loops, and long-term storage. This is making the circulating supply increasingly tight, potentially acting as a catalyst for price increases.

“Market sentiment may be gloomy today, but emotions don’t determine supply,” Milk Road noted. “While the market waits for a clear signal, ETH supply is tightening day by day. And when supply and demand converge, price is sure to respond.”

BTC vs. ETH stored on (CEX) exchanges | Source: Glassnode

Momentum Indicator Signals Increased Buying Power

Analyst “Sykodelic” noted on Friday that the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator — a momentum indicator based on trading volume — has officially broken through a key resistance level.

Although the price was rejected shortly after, Sykodelic believes this is a familiar form of hidden divergence, often seen when buying power is quietly accumulating ahead of a new upward trend.

“This is a sign that buying inflows are strengthening, and typically, price will soon respond accordingly. No indicator is absolutely certain, but in my view, OBV is one of the most reliable early signals,” he shared.

He added: “Current price action remains very positive. I expect the market to hit new highs before seeing any significant corrections.”

Ether’s OBV breaks resistance | Source: Sykodelic

ETH Holds the $3,000 Mark

Ether has held above the $3,000 mark for five consecutive days, indicating steady buying power even though the market has not been strong enough to break through the critical $3,200 resistance level. In the past 24 hours, ETH has continued to hover around $3,050, reflecting a temporary equilibrium in the market.

Notably, Ether’s performance against Bitcoin has also become a focal point over the past week, as the ETH/BTC pair surpassed the downtrend line for the first time, suggesting a potential short-term trend structure change.

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