According to Mars Finance news, on December 2, Wintermute released a market report stating that the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan completely erased last week's stability and triggered widespread deleveraging behavior. The market structure has been cleanly reset: leverage has significantly dropped, the funding situation has returned to neutral, and spot participation has notably increased. Everything is now trading according to macro logic, but the main currency pairs no longer seem as fragile. From a market structure perspective, the situation is actually improving: the basis has dropped to a cyclical low, with Bitcoin's 90-day annualized basis close to 4% to 5%, and Ethereum close to 3% to 4%, reflecting a continuous increase in leveraged long positions. The total open interest of perpetual futures has decreased from about $230 billion at the beginning of October to about $135 billion currently, clearing a large amount of excess leverage and reducing the likelihood of further mechanical liquidations. The proportion of spot trading volume has increased, and considering the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, the depth of spot supply is also better than expected. Lower leverage, negative funding, and healthier spot participation are generally what is needed before the market reconfigures after macroeconomic stability.
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Wintermute: The market structure is improving, and mainstream tokens are no longer so fragile.
According to Mars Finance news, on December 2, Wintermute released a market report stating that the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan completely erased last week's stability and triggered widespread deleveraging behavior. The market structure has been cleanly reset: leverage has significantly dropped, the funding situation has returned to neutral, and spot participation has notably increased. Everything is now trading according to macro logic, but the main currency pairs no longer seem as fragile. From a market structure perspective, the situation is actually improving: the basis has dropped to a cyclical low, with Bitcoin's 90-day annualized basis close to 4% to 5%, and Ethereum close to 3% to 4%, reflecting a continuous increase in leveraged long positions. The total open interest of perpetual futures has decreased from about $230 billion at the beginning of October to about $135 billion currently, clearing a large amount of excess leverage and reducing the likelihood of further mechanical liquidations. The proportion of spot trading volume has increased, and considering the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, the depth of spot supply is also better than expected. Lower leverage, negative funding, and healthier spot participation are generally what is needed before the market reconfigures after macroeconomic stability.