MicroStrategy hints at continuing to increase the position! Saylor insists on buying the dip, CEO reveals the only condition for selling coins.

Michael Saylor hinted at a new Bitcoin purchase by MicroStrategy with a “green dot” post. The chart shows that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin portfolio is worth approximately $59 billion, with a total of 649,870 Bitcoins purchased over 87 transactions. MicroStrategy's CEO Phong Le stated that the company would only sell coins if the mNAV falls below net asset value and cannot obtain new funding.

Saylor Green Dot Preview: MicroStrategy's 88th Coin Purchase Countdown

(Source: StrategyTracker)

After providing a chart showing the increasing number of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor has sparked speculation about buying Bitcoin again. He posted a message next to the portfolio chart: “What if we start adding green dots?” This statement suggests that as market volatility increases, MicroStrategy may be preparing for a new round of Bitcoin accumulation.

MicroStrategy recently stated that they will continue to buy Bitcoin regardless of market conditions. The chart shows that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin investment portfolio is valued at approximately $59 billion, having accumulated 649,870 Bitcoins through a total of 87 purchases. Each purchase operation is visualized as an orange dot. The “green dot” mentioned by Michael Saylor suggests that new buy markers may appear on the tracker.

The timing of this forecast is crucial. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of $87,000 to $90,000, having retraced about 30% from the historical high of $126,000 in October. From the perspective of MicroStrategy, this retracement provides an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price. Historical data shows that MicroStrategy typically increases its buying power during market panic or significant pullbacks because it allows for accumulating chips at a more favorable price.

The symbolic meaning of the green dot is also worth pondering. The orange dot represents historical buying records, while the green dot may signify a new buying phase or a more aggressive accumulation strategy. This visual forecasting approach is very much in line with Saylor's personal style, as he often hints at company actions in an obscure manner on social media, sparking widespread speculation and discussion in the market.

From a financial capability perspective, MicroStrategy meets the conditions for continued buying. The company continues to raise funds through the issuance of convertible bonds and preferred shares, specifically for the purpose of purchasing Bitcoin. As long as the company's mNAV (market net asset value ratio) remains above 1, the issuance of new shares will not dilute the per-share Bitcoin holdings of existing shareholders. Although MicroStrategy's mNAV has fallen from its peak, it still remains slightly above 1, providing a financial foundation for a new round of purchases.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Position Key Data

Total Holdings: 649,870 BTC

Portfolio Value: Approximately 59 billion USD

Historical Buy Count: 87 times

Average Cost: Approximately 74,000 USD

Potential 88th: Green Dot forecast in progress

CEO draws the line: mNAV falls below 1 and only sells coins when financing is cut

However, Michael Saylor's coin purchasing forecast stands in subtle contrast to MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le's recent statements. According to CEO Phong Le in a podcast interview, MicroStrategy will only sell Bitcoin under extremely unfavorable market conditions. He pointed out that this situation would only occur if mNAV falls below net asset value and new funding cannot be obtained.

According to Le, this business model relies on increasing capital when the market value of the stock exceeds the net asset value (NAV), after which the company will use this capital to increase its shareholding. MicroStrategy's core strategy is to raise funds through the issuance of stocks and bonds, and then use these funds to purchase Bitcoin, thereby increasing the number of Bitcoins held per share. As long as mNAV is greater than 1, this model can continue to operate.

However, once the mNAV falls below 1, the situation changes completely. At this point, issuing new shares will dilute the existing shareholders' Bitcoin holdings per share, contradicting MicroStrategy's core value proposition. Le's logic is that if it is not possible to raise funds through issuing stocks and financing channels are exhausted, then selling part of the Bitcoin to fulfill debt obligations becomes a mathematical necessity.

This aligns with Saylor's reiteration of MicroStrategy's long-term Bitcoin investment strategy. He pointed out that selling is only rational when funds are unobtainable and equity issuance would excessively dilute ownership. This statement provides the market with clear expectation management: MicroStrategy is not “never selling coins,” but rather “not selling coins in the vast majority of cases.”

MicroStrategy currently needs to pay approximately 750 million to 800 million USD in preferred stock dividends each year. Le added that the company plans to use the funds raised when the stock price is above its net asset value to pay these dividends. He stated that the continuous distribution of dividends helps enhance market confidence in MicroStrategy's ability to fulfill its obligations. Despite facing pressure, the company remains committed to its long-term Bitcoin strategy.

BTC Credit Dashboard: fall to 25,000 debt still manageable

According to Le, Bitcoin is a scarce asset that is of interest to all regions, which has led to a continuous rise in demand and price. He also emphasized that the limited supply of this asset is one of the factors supporting MicroStrategy's long-term holding strategy. Recently, MicroStrategy launched the BTC Credit dashboard, aimed at helping investors better understand their holdings after the recent market adjustment.

According to the information displayed on the dashboard, the company can continue to distribute dividends for decades. Even if the trading price of Bitcoin falls to the company's average purchase price of about $74,000, the dividend distribution can still continue. This guarantee is extremely important as it alleviates the market's main concerns regarding MicroStrategy's financial stability. When the price of Bitcoin fluctuates dramatically, investors are most worried about whether MicroStrategy can meet its debt obligations.

More extreme stress tests show that MicroStrategy confidently states it can repay its debt even if the price of Bitcoin falls to $25,000. This drop from the current price of $87,000 to $25,000 represents a 71% decline. In this catastrophic scenario, the value of the Bitcoin held by MicroStrategy would shrink from $59 billion to about $16.2 billion. Even so, the company claims that its debt structure remains manageable.

This confidence comes from the fact that most of MicroStrategy's debt consists of long-term convertible bonds, with maturity dates spread out over the next few years. The conversion price of these convertible bonds is set above the stock price at issuance, meaning that bondholders will only choose to convert to stock if MicroStrategy's stock price rises. If the stock price falls, bondholders are more likely to choose to hold the bonds to receive interest rather than convert. This structure gives MicroStrategy enough time to respond to market fluctuations.

The company has demonstrated strong financial strength even after experiencing a period of high market pressure. For example, when the price of Bitcoin fell to around $90,000 and the cryptocurrency market plummeted, MicroStrategy faced the risk of being removed from the Nasdaq 100 index. Analysts at JPMorgan estimated that the index removal could trigger passive selling pressure of up to $8.8 billion. However, the launch of the BTC Credit dashboard shows that even in the face of such pressure, MicroStrategy's financial foundation remains solid.

These statements give people hope for continuing to buy Bitcoin, especially in a stable market situation. Saylor's green dot forecast combined with the CEO's financial guarantees forms a complete narrative: MicroStrategy not only has the ability to continue buying, but can also maintain operations even in the most extreme circumstances. This dual assurance is extremely important for MicroStrategy's shareholders and bondholders.

Market Response and Investment Insights

Saylor's green dot forecast has sparked widespread discussion on social media. Supporters believe this is a signal that MicroStrategy is optimistic about the current price and is an opportunity for retail investors to follow. Skeptics question whether continued buying in the context of a significant pullback in the company's stock price and mNAV compression will further dilute shareholder equity.

For investors, the actions of MicroStrategy provide important market signals. As the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, the buying timing of MicroStrategy often represents the judgment of professional institutions regarding the market. If MicroStrategy indeed increases its buying intensity around the current price, it may indicate that $87,000-90,000 is viewed as a reasonable valuation range for the medium to long term.

However, following MicroStrategy's buying also requires an understanding of its unique business model. MicroStrategy uses leverage to amplify its Bitcoin exposure, a strategy that can generate excess returns in a bull market but can also magnify losses in a bear market. Retail investors who wish to emulate MicroStrategy must ensure they have sufficient financial buffers to cope with volatility.