Bitcoin Whale Bets $2 Billion! Retail Investors Flee as Institutions Buy the Dip for a Rebound

A Bitcoin Whale has bet $2 billion, believing that the worst period is over. After the leverage washout has stripped away the speculative bubble in the Crypto Assets market, the market may have bottomed out. On November 24, Deribit reported a nominal Block Trading of 20,000 BTC, with the trader purchasing a long call options portfolio expiring in December 2025, with contract prices at 100k/106k/112k/118k.

Deribit records $2 billion bullish call options large orders

(Source: Deribit)

On November 24, the Crypto Assets options trading platform Deribit reported a nominal Block Trading of 20,000 BTC, which seems to indicate that institutional capital is shifting from crisis control to strategic accumulation. According to the platform: “The trader purchased a long call options portfolio expiring in December 2025, with contract prices at 100k/106k/112k/118k. The signal is clear: a structured bullish outlook—expecting Bitcoin prices to reach the 100-118k range, rather than breaking through that range.”

This perspective is essentially a bet, and the recent wave of liquidations marks the arrival of a cyclical bottom, clearing the path towards a six-figure milestone. In fact, this trading structure is very precise. By buying call options with exercise prices of 100,000 USD and 118,000 USD, while simultaneously selling call options with strike prices of 106,000 USD and 112,000 USD, investors aim to lock in a specific profit range.

This strategy is known as the “Bull Call Condor,” which is a limited risk, limited reward options combination. Its advantage lies in the lower cost, as the premiums received from the sold options can partially offset the cost of the purchased options. The maximum profit occurs when the Bitcoin price falls between $106,000 and $112,000, which is exactly the price range that the trader is most bullish on. If the Bitcoin price falls below $100,000 or rises above $118,000, the profits from this combination will decrease, or even incur losses.

This structured bullish outlook represents a bet that Bitcoin will recover and stabilize in a higher valuation range, but will not experience chaotic fluctuations like the recent crash. Choosing the December 2025 expiration means this whale is giving the market more than a year to achieve this goal, showing that their confidence is not based on short-term speculation, but rather on a strategic judgment of medium to long-term trends.

At the same time, this position allocation is at a critical moment. Although retail investors remain hesitant, the derivatives market has sent signals indicating that structural damage has been repaired. Deribit, as the world's largest Crypto Assets options trading platform, often reflects institutional investors' position changes in advance through its block trading data. This $2 billion trade is not only astonishing in scale, but more importantly, in the timing — it enters the market just after severe liquidations and retail panic exits, indicating that this Whale believes the risks have been fully released and the downside is limited.

Therefore, this transaction indicates that the recent drop from the high of $27,000 is a necessary cleansing event that lays the foundation for the next phase of the cycle.

Epic cleaning of 1.3 million BTC open contracts

(Source: CryptoQuant)

To understand the confidence behind this $2 billion gamble, one must look at the scale of the destruction it caused. The market has just experienced the most severe contraction in open interest throughout the entire cycle. According to data from CryptoQuant, the open interest in Bitcoin has plummeted by about 1.3 million contracts in the past 30 days. The vast majority of the liquidations occurred on the Binance exchange, marking the complete end of the speculative frenzy that previously drove the total open interest in Bitcoin to a historic high.

The scale of this sell-off is reminiscent of the depths of the bear market in 2022. As a result, Bitcoin has recently fallen from $106,000 to about $79,500, primarily due to a chain reaction of mechanical liquidations rather than a degradation of fundamentals. This means that traders holding long positions were completely wiped out in a severe feedback loop, turning what could have been a healthy adjustment into a crash.

However, historical patterns indicate that these “purification phases” are often bullish signals. By forcibly liquidating overly optimistic positions and eliminating weak investors, the market constructs a more stable foundation. The reduction in speculative risk exposure means that the sell-off pressure brought by high leverage has been exhausted. When the market rises again, there are no longer large leveraged long positions needing to take profits, significantly reducing the resistance to price increases.

The clearing of open contracts for 1.3 million Bitcoins corresponds to a notional value of over 100 billion USD at current prices. The deleveraging process of this scale is extremely painful, but also very thorough. From the perspective of financing rates in the futures market, they have now fallen back to near neutral levels, indicating that market leverage has dropped to a healthy range. This low-leverage environment provides a solid foundation for the next wave of price increases, as it implies that price rises are primarily driven by spot demand rather than leveraged amplification.

Retail investors sell off, whale absorbs the wealth redistribution

(Source: CryptoQuant)

At the same time, beneath the apparent prosperity of the derivatives market, on-chain data shows that ownership has undergone significant changes, which supports the argument that the market has reached its bottom. The market is shifting from aggressive sell-offs to orderly corrections. Key pressure indicators such as trading volume and realized capital changes have all retreated, which is a characteristic feature of adjustments at the end of the cycle.

Moreover, there has been a clear differentiation between different groups of investors. Over the past 60 days, retail investors (holding less than 10 Bitcoins) have been net sellers, while medium-sized “shark” investors and institutional investors have begun to enter the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows that holders of 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins, as well as holders of more than 10,000 Bitcoins, have been steadily increasing their holdings during the price decline of Bitcoin.

These experienced investors are absorbing the Bitcoin supply released by retail investors who are selling off in panic. This wealth redistribution model has repeatedly appeared in Bitcoin's history. Each severe adjustment is accompanied by a transfer of chips from weak hands to strong hands, where retail investors chase the pump at high prices and panic sell at low prices, while Whales quietly accumulate during market panic. This time, the scale of the transfer is particularly significant, as the drop from $106,000 to $79,500 is enough to cause most high-leverage retail investors to be liquidated or stop-loss.

However, the only resistance at present comes from the group holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins, who are still continuing to distribute their Bitcoins. This group typically represents early investors, successful traders, or medium-sized institutions, whose sell-offs are often based on their judgment of market cycles. To turn the recovery momentum into a confirmed reversal, this portion of investors must slow down the pace of selling. Thus, the $2 billion options bet serves as an early signal indicating that “smart money” believes this shift is imminent.

Changes in Holdings of Different Groups in Bitcoin

Retail Investors (<10 BTC): Continued net selling, dominated by panic sentiment

Shark (100-1000 BTC): Steady accumulation, strategically gathering positions

Medium Whale (1000-10,000 BTC): Continuous distribution, hindering reversal confirmation

Super Whale (>10,000 BTC): Steadily accumulating, institutional-level bottom fishing

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations and Macro Catalysts

At the same time, the trading timing of this Whale indicates that a favorable shift in the macro environment is on the horizon. In the coming week, a large amount of important economic data will be released, including the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in December. The market anticipates an 81% probability of a rate cut, and dovish data will provide immediate liquidity support for risk assets.

Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin told CryptoSlate that the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts has driven Bitcoin's recent upward trend beyond $87,000. He stated, “If market sentiment continues, we could see further room for growth in the short term, especially given the underallocation of bullish positions.” However, he also warned that due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve and the lack of concrete data, the optimistic sentiment is “not solid.”

Puckrin added that the Federal Reserve's next decision could determine whether there will be a “Christmas rally” or a “Christmas crash” by the end of the year, and he expects this tension to last until the meeting on December 10. In this context, bullish vulture options combinations play a strategic tool role. The massive scale of this combination will trigger a large number of traders' hedging operations. As the price moves toward the activation area of $100,000, traders who sell this combination will be forced to hedge their risk exposure, creating a magnetic force that drives movement toward the profit zone.

The “Options Magnet” effect often occurs in large Options trading. When a significant amount of options is concentrated at a certain price level, market makers will engage in reverse operations in the spot market to hedge their risks. If the price of Bitcoin approaches $100,000, market makers may need to buy in the spot market to hedge their exposure from selling call options, and this hedging buying pressure may, in turn, drive the price further up, creating a self-reinforcing positive cycle.