4 tips to navigate the crypto market cycle

If you ask a veteran trader what determines success in the crypto market, they rarely mention choosing the right coin or outperforming the algorithmic “whales.”

True winners all share one common trait: the ability to survive.

Ran Neuner – a trader and influencer in the crypto community – has navigated over 20 market crashes, turning a 1 million USD investment into an impressive 250 million USD. He asserts:

“If you survive a crash in the crypto market, you will almost certainly become wealthy. That's just how this game works.”

Instances of market adjustments in crypto provide valuable lessons

The crypto market is always rapidly changing. If you are new, it is easy to get swept up in emotions and sell off as soon as the price starts to adjust.

Most new investors have pressed the sell button at the worst moment. But do you really want to be part of the statistic of 1.6 million traders being “wiped out” after just one adjustment, or 20 billion USD evaporating from the market overnight?

Ran Neuner's advice goes against the crowd's trend. His journey is a clear testament to market psychology, resilience, and a humble spirit.

In 2016, Ran bought 100 Bitcoin at a price of 1,000 USD each – a significant investment for anyone, especially for someone new to this field.

Just a few months later, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed to 1,500 USD, but then plummeted down to 500 USD in just a few hours.

“So what did I do?” He shared. “I did what most new investors do: sold Bitcoin at $500.”

Despite heavy losses, Ran did not give up. He realized his mistake and bought back at a price of 900 USD, but the amount of Bitcoin he held decreased significantly.

That mistake caused him to lose 45 Bitcoin ( equivalent to about 4.7 million USD at current prices ). However, it was those experiences that taught him invaluable lessons. Below are the four core principles Ran has summarized after many years of battling in the market.

Allocate 80% of the portfolio to tokens with a solid foundation that have gone through multiple cycles.

The first rule for surviving and thriving in the crypto market is to allocate 80% of your portfolio to tokens that you truly believe in, which have proven their resilience through multiple market cycles.

This is not a hunt for short-term meme waves, but rather a persistence with reputable coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana.

These coins “are not wiped out in crashes,” Ran noted. They are built on a solid technological foundation, a close-knit community, and have previously recovered strongly after crises.

Bitcoin has previously surpassed price drops of up to 80%, Ethereum revived after losing 95% of its value, while Solana also made a strong comeback after a 97% collapse following FTX.

View adjustments as accumulation opportunities

Second principle: consider price corrections as opportunities to buy, not as threats. According to Ran, sharp declines are a characteristic of the market, not a system failure.

“If you truly believe in the tokens you hold and are committed to long-term investment through multiple cycles, then corrections are not an issue. They are actually opportunities for you.”

So, if you have strong faith, take advantage of these moments to accumulate more coins at attractive prices.

Avoid buying when the market is too greedy, avoid selling when it is too panic-stricken.

The third principle: train yourself not to buy when the feeling of greed is at its peak or to sell when fear spreads. Use indicators like the Fear & Greed Index or the 50-week moving average to determine reasonable entry and exit points.

History has proven: every time the crypto market collapses, there is a very short period of extreme fear before it turns back up.

Extreme fear marks the bottom of the cryptocurrency market | Source: Coin Stats"Extreme fear often marks the bottom," Ran shared. The key lies in controlling psychology, not technique. Be patient and wait until buying becomes emotionally difficult; that's the right time to act.

Reverse the traditional strategy: buy when others are fleeing, sell when the crowd is excited.

Always maintain a long-term vision

Finally, let's broaden our perspective. If you get caught up in the small fluctuations on the price chart, switch to monitoring daily, weekly, or monthly.

“Every time the chart looks like the end of the world, just zoom out,” Ran said. The small fluctuations on the one-minute chart are just tiny dots in the long-term development picture of technology and the market.

What many newcomers to the crypto market overlook – but seasoned investors understand well – is the “reason they say crypto is a good place to invest is because the market has risen significantly before.”

The allure of the get-rich-quick dream pulls them in at the peak of the wave. They buy at high prices, use leverage, and can easily get swept out of the market when the trend reverses.

Survivors are not those who trade according to every fluctuation up and down. They are those who have strong faith, are persistent with a long-term strategy, and are determined not to be knocked out of the game.

So next time the crypto market crashes, remember the process verified by Ran: keep 80% of your portfolio in solid foundational investments, take advantage of corrections to accumulate, reassess the principles, and have the courage to buy when fear reaches its peak.

In the end, just survive. “Because in the crypto market, if you survive, you will be rich. It's as simple as that. That's the rule of the game.”

Mr. Teacher