Monad officially confirms that the Airdrop claim portal will open at 21:00 Beijing time on October 14 and will be available for 3 weeks. However, strangely, major exchanges have already pushed the valuation to 8.3 billion USD in the pre-market, while only 18% of bets in the Polymarket prediction market are wagering on an Airdrop in October. Insider addresses betting “will not be issued” have already profited 60,000 USD.
Monad Airdrop mechanism innovation: time window + task-based system replacing traditional snapshot
On October 14, Monad's growth director Kevin McCordic posted that the Airdrop claim portal will open tomorrow at 21:00 Beijing time and will be open for 3 weeks. McCordic also reminded users to be cautious of fake Airdrop links, to pay attention to official information, and that a blog post will be published to discuss Airdrop matters in more detail.
· Revolutionary Airdrop Design: No Longer Just Looking at Snapshot Eligibility
McCordic recently stated during a podcast that past Airdrop projects typically used a verification system to determine if users were eligible before they could claim. The Monad Airdrop will not use this method; instead, there will be a specific time window during which users must complete certain tasks to claim.
Monad Airdrop Key Details:
Opening time: October 14, 21:00 Beijing time
Claim period: 3-week time window open
Mechanism Features: Tasks must be completed within a time frame, not a traditional snapshot system.
Initial supply: Co-founder Keone stated that the initial circulation of the token is 100 billion.
This design may be intended to prevent Airdrop Hunters and ensure that genuine community participants can receive rewards. The traditional snapshot system is often criticized for being easily manipulated by Sybil Attacks, while Monad's mission system may require users to engage in on-chain interactions or community participation to prove their authenticity.
Monad Pre-Market Heats Up: VC Coin Controversy Behind $8.3 Billion Valuation
Monad, developed by a team with a background in Jump Trading, is a high-performance EVM-compatible Layer 1 public chain. Since its seed round financing in 2023, it has attracted many users to participate. In April 2024, it raised $225 million at a valuation of $3 billion, further establishing Monad as the last typical VC coin (a project that raises substantial funding at a high valuation).
· Overview of Pre-Market Quotes from Major Exchanges
This announcement was made after the launch of the Monad pre-market on Hyperliquid, and subsequently included CEX exchanges also listing the pre-market. Previously, Monad co-founder Keone stated that the initial circulation of the token is 100 billion. Below are the pre-market quotes and corresponding valuations of several mainstream platforms:
Mainstream Platform Pre-Market Prices and Valuations:
Hyperliquid: $0.084, corresponding to a valuation of $8.4 billion
Currently, the pre-market prices from various exchanges indicate that Monad is expected to open with a valuation of around 8.3 billion USD. This figure far exceeds its 3 billion USD valuation in April 2024, representing an increase of 176%, demonstrating the market's high expectations for this high-performance EVM-compatible public chain.
Pre-Market Trading Risk Warning
However, don't think that you can mindlessly short high-valued VC coins. Previously, someone exploited the pricing mechanism loophole of Hyperliquid's pre-market, force-liquidating users who were hedging their shorts through a spike.
Hyperliquid Pre-Market Manipulation Case:
The conspiracy Address profited millions through Plasma injection.
Manipulating prices using Hyperps pricing mechanism vulnerabilities
Short sellers are forced to liquidate during extreme price volatility.
This reminds investors that the pre-market, due to lower liquidity and limited participants, is susceptible to manipulation by large players, and it is essential to carefully assess risks when trading.
Polymarket prediction market anomaly: After the official announcement of the airdrop, bets on “will not happen” surged
Ironically, even though the official announcement has declared an Airdrop on October 14, the prediction on Polymarket regarding whether Monad will Airdrop before October 31 has plummeted to 18%. This unusual phenomenon has sparked market speculation about “insider trading.”
· Mysterious Address Eurospar Reverse Bet Profit
Researcher CryptoGator noted that the user with the nickname Eurospar bet No at the peak (believing that there would be no Airdrop before October 31), realizing an unrealized profit of about $60,000.
Insider Address Operation Analysis:
Betting Timing: Place a bet on “will not issue” after the official announcement.
Profit Scale: Unrealized profit of approximately 60,000 USD
Market impact: The probability of Yes plummeted from a high of 19%.
Potential interpretation: May have insider information on the postponement or cancellation of the Airdrop.
CryptoGator suggests that if it is considered an insider address, one might observe its actions to determine the true airdrop date of Monad. Currently, the probability of Yes is only 19%. If the accurate airdrop timing is successfully captured, it could lead to a fivefold return, but one might also be misled by that address.
Three Possible Market Interpretations
Scenario 1: Airdrop Delay or Cancellation
Eurospar may have access to official information that has not yet been made public, such as technical issues causing delays, regulatory factors, or adjustments in team strategy.
Scenario 2: Definition of Controversy
The question settings of Polymarket may have gray areas. For example, is the definition of “Airdrop” “open claim entry” or “actual token arrival”? Time zone differences may also affect the judgment.
Scenario 3: Market Manipulation
The whales create panic in the prediction market to lower the odds of Yes, and then at the last moment, they build positions in the opposite direction to earn high multiples of profit.
Monad Airdrop Three Major Points to Note
In the face of this controversial Monad Airdrop, participants should be aware of the following risks:
1. Prevent phishing links
The official has clearly warned to beware of fraudulent airdrop links. Be sure to obtain the claim entry through official Twitter, official website, and other trustworthy channels, and do not click on suspicious links in private messages or communities.
2. Time Window Pressure
Unlike traditional snapshots, the Monad Airdrop requires completing tasks within a 3-week period. Early participants are advised to claim as soon as the opening begins to avoid network congestion or technical issues at the last moment.
3. Pre-market volatility
A pre-market valuation of 8.3 billion USD may significantly differ from the actual opening price. Historically, overvalued VC tokens often experience a drop immediately upon opening, and investors should carefully assess the timing for entry.
