On June 19, Morningstar analysts said that economic forecasts are always difficult, but the Federal Reserve is in a particularly difficult situation this summer. The last time the Fed released its projections was before Trump’s statement on tariffs on March 2 that could affect the market. At the time, the FOMC expected two rate cuts in 2025. Since then, sticky inflation, the shock of tariff hikes, and possible policy and regulatory changes in the Trump administration have upended the outlook. As a result, analysts say fewer rate cuts are likely this year. Analysts say it’s not surprising that there will only be one rate cut in 2025. Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations of a rate cut this year. Analysts said they would be more surprised by the dot plot where there was no rate cut at all, which would be interpreted as “quite hawkish”.
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