Gate Research: Kalshi Case Study, Brokerage Distribution Scales Centralized Prediction Markets

Gate Research has released its latest report, “Brokerage Distribution Scales Centralized Prediction Markets,” outlining the structural evolution of prediction markets over the past year. The report finds that prediction markets are transitioning from crypto-native products driven by single, discrete events toward more financialized products with stable supply rhythms and replicable operating models. Their growth engine is shifting away from pure thematic innovation toward distribution capability and supply-system design within compliant regulatory frameworks.

Using Kalshi as a case study, the report examines how brokerage-based distribution and season-driven sports supply have enabled prediction markets to scale. It finds that once event contracts are integrated into brokerage account systems, user participation thresholds and trading workflows are significantly simplified, making distribution efficiency a decisive factor in trading volume and market share. At the same time, sports markets, with their high frequency, strong standardization, and continuous issuance, are increasingly replacing political events as the most scalable core theme, substantially improving trading activity and user engagement.

Building on this, the report explores on-chain expansion paths for centralized prediction markets. It argues that tokenizing event contracts can extend distribution boundaries from brokerage accounts to wallets and DeFi environments, improving verifiability while lowering distribution costs. However, this approach also introduces regulatory boundary uncertainty, as well as challenges in maintaining consistency between off-chain core markets and on-chain representations in pricing, settlement, and risk control. Overall, prediction markets are in an early transition from theme-driven to structure-driven growth, with their ultimate scale dependent on the coordination between distribution entry points, high-frequency supply systems, and boundary governance capabilities.

• Sector evolution: Prediction markets are expanding from crypto-native products to broader mainstream trading distribution channels, with growth logic shifting from theme-driven to structure-driven.
• Distribution as the key lever: Regulatory status and brokerage access have become critical scaling variables; embedding event contracts into brokerage accounts significantly lowers participation barriers and amplifies trading volume.
• Theme migration: Prediction markets are moving from political-event dominance toward sports-led, season-based supply, where high frequency, standardization, and continuous issuance support stable trading rhythms and stronger user engagement.
• Scaling mechanism: Sports seasons enable prediction markets to function more like operable derivatives supply systems, rather than short-lived bursts around isolated headline events.
• On-chain exploration: Centralized prediction markets are beginning to tokenize event contracts, extending distribution from brokerage accounts to wallets, aggregators, and DeFi ecosystems.
• Core constraints: On-chain expansion faces uncertainty around state-level and federal regulatory boundaries, as well as challenges in maintaining pricing, settlement, and risk-control consistency between off-chain core markets and on-chain mappings.

Read the full report → Gate Research: Kalshi Case Study, Brokerage Distribution Scales Centralized Prediction Markets

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Gate Ekibi
3 Şubat 2026

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