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#贵金原油价格飙升
Many people ask me how to operate in this kind of market. My strategy is actually very simple: "subtract" in the crypto market and "add" in the TradFi market.
First, I did not chase the high open long positions.
This morning, both gold and crude oil gapped higher at the open. Such gaps are very dangerous for those chasing the high. Once diplomatic negotiations (such as today’s Vienna technical talks) occur, a large profit-taking wave could trigger a waterfall decline. So I chose to wait, waiting for the market sentiment to first vent and then confirm a pullback.
Second, I made two "

#贵金原油价格飙升
Regarding the third issue, what is the future of US-Iran relations? How will it impact the market?
1. Situation Forecast: I believe the probability of a full-scale war breaking out remains low, but the risks of “normalization of low-intensity conflicts” and “intermittent restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz” are very high. This means oil prices could stay high for a long time, and inflation expectations may rise again.
2. Impact on Gold and Oil: If conflicts become normalized, gold will be more than just a safe haven; it will be a hard currency against inflation. Crude oil will expe

#深度创作营
The Federal Reserve's probability of not cutting interest rates in March has directly reached 99.5%. Is this a deadlock being broken?
The cycle of the market may also be approaching a recovery phase. At this point, don’t be fooled by the bears. No rate cuts, all negative factors have been exhausted, and the biggest negative impact has been realized.
After such a long period of high interest rates, all the panic, selling pressure, and leverage have been cleared out one batch after another. Now that the shoe has fully dropped, uncertainty can be said to be virtually eliminated.
Currently

#深度创作营
Whether it's a bull market or a bear market, there are no markets that only go up or only go down. The price movements will always be like waves, rising and falling, repeating in cycles.
1. Large capital, low expectations: If you have over 1 million dollars, you can choose to hold BTC and ETH until the end of the low bull market in 2026, with a high probability of 3-5 times gains.
2. Moderate capital, higher expectations: For example, 100,000 to 1 million dollars, choose promising sectors and secondary altcoins. It's easy to find coins (ORDI, SOL, ICP, SEI, SUI, PEPE, DOGE, ASTR, BSV,

Bitcoin under $150,000 can only be considered a bottom, surpassing $150,000 marks the entry into a bullish frenzy, and then quickly pushing towards $300,000!
① BTC will continue to rally, with the next resistance at $150,000. Whether $150,000 is the top still depends on the subsequent correction.
② No matter how much it rises, BTC will experience at least one significant correction, at least over 10,000 points( indicating the start of a pullback) followed by oscillation and retracement. The retracement level is unknown, but this major adjustment is an opportunity to get in.
③ After the correct

#深度创作营
Waiting for a rebound in a bear market before selling, waiting for a correction in a bull market before entering—these mindsets are all wrong! If you have this mentality, you basically won't make any money. Let me give you an example, my friends. In a bear market, you buy Bitcoin with $100,000, and it drops to $50,000. You want to wait for a rebound to sell, but usually, you'll end up losing half your investment, and the more you hold, the deeper the loss becomes, until you don't want to look at your account anymore. And in a bull market, with $60,000, you hesitate to buy, thinking abo

#深度创作营
Trading depends on logic, holding coins depends on mindset. Before buying, you need a solid reason; when selling, the same applies—there must be a sufficient reason. The crypto market belongs to the uninformed; buying and selling should always be driven by logic, not emotions.
Bitcoin continues to hit new annual highs, while altcoins and some old coins remain unmoved.
Will altcoins and old coins rise?
Based on past experience, after Bitcoin's surge in a bull market, altcoins and old coins will definitely lag behind. Once Bitcoin stabilizes, the next phase will be a series of explosive

#深度创作营
Core Strategies for a Bull Market
1: During a bull market, the hotter the coin, the faster and more aggressively it will fall.
2: Truly potential coins and 100x coins are not heavily promoted in the market. Instead, only a few early-stage projects may occasionally be briefly discussed.
3: Market capitalization, number of exchanges listed on, number of holding addresses, and investment institutions are not reliable references for selecting coins.
4: The market always fluctuates in a flat curve.
5: There are always predators watching and hunting in the market.
6: Shitcoins will exhibit s

#深度创作营
$ETH
The current market is essentially a "fast-paced" game.
The truth about ETFs: It’s a high-speed channel that gives money when the market is good and takes it away when the market is bad. It greatly reduces the friction cost of smashing the market, making it an invisible driver of this round of decline.
Betrayal of the bulls: Leveraged longs are the strongest bears in a bear market. Forced liquidations cause a chain of sell-offs that are more ruthless than deliberate shorting.
Don’t always think about eating the most. Many people (like Yi Lihua) fail because, when the red light sig

#深度创作营
Israel attacks Iran, Bitcoin is not a safe haven asset; when war breaks out, it will definitely fall.
Once thought to be a safe haven like gold, it is now removed from safe haven assets.
Therefore, the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold is invalid, and it doesn't have any so-called safe haven properties. It also hasn't succeeded in fighting inflation, only has speculative value, and is a marginalized high-risk asset.
Investing in Bitcoin offers no safe haven, only risk.

#BTC能否重返7万美元？
My strategy is rather "timid": I adopt a "core position + swing trading" approach.
· Gradually building positions: In the 65K-67K range, I have already increased my holdings to about 50%. After all, the overall trend still sees a rate cut cycle and halving effects, and the risk of missing out is more uncomfortable than the risk of short-term being caught.
· Waiting for confirmation: I will firmly wait until the price stabilizes above 70K and pulls back without breaking below before deploying more. Alternatively, if the market "doesn't play fair" and pulls back again near 64K, I

In this situation where "the rebound is expected to continue but risks still exist," my strategy is a "Core + Satellite" allocation:
· Core Position (60%): Increase holdings in BTC and ETH. This is the safest choice. Bitcoin is the engine of the bull market and the most certain asset. ETH benefits from the ongoing activity in its ecosystem and the anticipation of the Dencun upgrade. Its over 13% surge this time also demonstrates its resilience. They serve as "ballast" during rebounds or even reversals.
· Satellite Positions (40%):
· SOL: As one of the strongest L1s in this cycle, SOL's ecosy

#深度创作营
Secrets to the Narrative of Speculation!
Every bull market cycle features a wealth effect narrative, but understanding the essence of the narrative and making money through it is crucial!
1️⃣ Purely financial attribute narratives, strange patterns, capital games
2️⃣ Income-empowered tokens, rolling business models, resource bundling
3️⃣ Major category narratives, leading projects with expectations of a super market cap ceiling
Gusu believes that the most certain and longest-lasting wealth effects in the future are DEFI, RWA, L1, and AI.
In the future, many innovative projects will emer

At around $1,800, the debate is between the "whales exiting to hedge" and the "HODLers holding firm." Who should I follow? My answer is: neither, I follow "time."
· Whale Retreat: Data shows that whale sell orders are decreasing, which is indeed unsettling. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are bearish on the market; it could also be to avoid short-term macro risks (like interest rate expectations) or simply repositioning their holdings. They are "smart money," but their operational cycle differs from that of retail investors.
· HODLers Holding Firm: In February, they bought 2.5 million c