Glassnode On-Chain Data Analysis: Bitcoin Seller Pressure Turning Point and Bottom Signal

By early March 2026, Bitcoin broke through the critical psychological barrier of $70,000 amid a confluence of multiple factors, drawing widespread market attention. On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode’s latest monitoring indicates that selling pressure is easing, with the 14-day net flow indicator reversing upward for the first time, suggesting early signs of re-accumulation. However, this breakout has not generated uniform optimism—Glassnode also warns that current ETF demand structures remain fragile, and the market is more likely in a “defensive consolidation” phase rather than the start of a new trend expansion. This article dissects the true on-chain data, market disagreements, and future evolution paths based on reserve data and market sentiment indicators.

Seller pressure eases, price breaks key level

As of March 6, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin’s price stabilized above $70,000, reaching a high of around $73,500. This price movement is underpinned by a significant improvement in on-chain sell pressure indicators. The tracked 14-day net flow of sellers (measuring net Bitcoin inflow to exchanges) has reversed upward after months of negative values, indicating that selling pressure on trading platforms is diminishing.

Meanwhile, the net position change of long-term holders (LTH) also shows a similar trend. After continuous net selling since Q4 2025, LTH selling intensity is weakening. Analysts note that as the price stabilizes around $60,000, even the most steadfast holders have taken profits or panicked out, helping stabilize the market structure.

From liquidation lows to cautious recovery

To understand current on-chain signals, it’s necessary to review the market evolution over the past three months. At the end of 2025, Bitcoin experienced a severe deleveraging process. As prices retraced from historic highs, the market underwent large-scale liquidations, with open interest in options markets dropping over 45%, setting a record for the largest position reset in history. This process cleared many structural hedging constraints, providing a cleaner position base for subsequent market movements.

Entering January 2026, the market began to oscillate and bottom within the $80,000 to $90,000 range. At that time, profit-taking pressures significantly cooled, with Realized Profit (7-day SMA) dropping from over $1 billion daily in Q4 to around $180 million. This change laid the groundwork for the rebound seen from late February to early March. In late February, geopolitical tensions escalated unexpectedly, and Bitcoin demonstrated safe-haven qualities, attracting capital inflows. By March, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerated notably, with over $1.1 billion in three days, directly pushing the price above $70,000.

Early signs of accumulation, but demand structure remains doubtful

On-chain data show several key structural features:

Diminished seller momentum

Long-term holder (LTH) 30-day sell volume has decreased from approximately 904,000 BTC in November 2025 to about 276,000 BTC now, the lowest since June 2025. This indicates that supply pressure from “diamond hands” has eased considerably. Additionally, the transfer of unrealized losses from short-term holders to exchanges has also declined sharply, suggesting the panic selling phase has largely ended.

Early signals of accumulation behavior

Despite overall market sentiment remaining cautious, on-chain data indicate that accumulation is quietly underway. Large whale addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have increased their holdings over the past week, now accounting for 11.32% of circulating supply. Data from CryptoQuant corroborate this trend, with address balances related to long-term holding steadily rising, implying that committed funds are absorbing circulating supply.

Fragility of demand structure

Although prices have risen, Glassnode warns that the current demand base is not solid. Short-term holder (STH) cost basis models show an average entry cost around $99,100, meaning most recent buyers are still slightly underwater (STH-MVRV at 0.95). Unless prices can sustain above this level, demand may weaken again due to lack of confidence.

Additionally, corporate treasury demand, while providing some support, appears intermittent rather than sustained, often concentrated during price pullbacks rather than during rallies.

Market sentiment analysis

Current market interpretations of Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 are notably divided into two main camps:

Cautiously optimistic: bottom confirmed, trend brewing

Some analyses from Glassnode suggest that with LTH selling pressure easing and options market reset, the market structure has improved significantly. They believe that as long as prices hold current levels and gradually absorb the supply concentrated around $92,000 to $117,000, Bitcoin could enter a genuine re-accumulation phase. This camp emphasizes the importance of “early signs” and views this as a critical window before a trend reversal.

Conservative warning: relief rally, bear market not over

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explicitly states that despite the rebound, Bitcoin remains in a bear market environment. Their Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 10 out of 100, indicating that fundamentals and technicals have not yet recovered to bull market levels. They see the current rise more as a “relief rally,” with strong resistance at $79,000 and $90,000.

Reality check on narratives

Is “seller exhaustion” equivalent to “buyer strength”?

This is a key distinction. On-chain data show reduced sell pressure, but this only reflects supply-side changes. For prices to continue rising, demand-side expansion must also persist. ETF inflows, while rebounding, still need to be sustained. Historical experience suggests that without confirmation of demand turning into a net inflow trend, rebounds driven solely by supply-side improvements are unlikely to be durable.

Credibility of early accumulation signals

Whale accumulation and rising address balances are positive signs. However, whether these are sufficient to offset the large supply concentrated around $92,000 to $117,000—where many early buyers may be trapped—is uncertain. Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows significant unliquidated positions in this zone, which could exert downward pressure if they are forced to sell.

Industry impact analysis

The current on-chain signals have several implications:

Market structure improvement

The massive deleveraging at the end of 2025 cleared excessive leverage and structural hedges, leading to a healthier market foundation. The shift of options gamma positions to a short-term state suggests that market makers’ hedging behavior during upward moves could generate positive feedback, amplifying gains.

Changing institutional participation

The resumption of spot ETF inflows indicates that institutions still view Bitcoin as an important asset allocation. Unlike earlier phases of reckless chasing, current inflows are more price-sensitive, often occurring during stabilization or pullbacks. This suggests future market moves may be more stepwise rather than straight-line rallies.

Regulatory and mainstream adoption

Ongoing ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s safe-haven qualities during geopolitical tensions are gradually reinforcing its status as a mainstream macro asset. Although this narrative shift is slow, it has long-term implications for capital allocation decisions.

Multi-scenario evolution

Based on current data, three potential future scenarios are outlined:

Scenario 1: Trend confirmation, re-accumulation zone

• Conditions: Price sustains above short-term holder cost basis (~$99,100); ETF inflows remain above $500 million weekly; macro geopolitical risks are manageable.
• Market: Bitcoin enters a new trading range of $80,000–$100,000, with long-term holders beginning net accumulation, shifting sentiment from defensive to moderate expansion.

Scenario 2: Demand false signal, double bottom

• Conditions: ETF inflows turn net outflows again; price faces strong selling pressure between $75,000–$80,000; macro liquidity tightens.
• Market: Rebound fails, price drops back to $60,000–$65,000, with new short-term panic selling.

Scenario 3: Long-term sideways, time as a buffer

• Conditions: Buyers and sellers reach a dynamic balance between $65,000–$80,000; macro factors lack clear direction.
• Market: Extended sideways consolidation over months, gradually digesting trapped positions, with eventual breakout—most consistent with Glassnode’s “defensive consolidation” scenario.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s breakthrough past $70,000 results from a combination of easing seller pressure and renewed ETF inflows. On-chain data show early signs of re-accumulation, with long-term holders reducing sales significantly and whales increasing holdings. Nonetheless, demand structure remains fragile; sustained ETF inflows are crucial for transitioning from “defensive consolidation” to a sustained trend expansion.

Investors should focus on the battle around the short-term holder cost basis (~$99,100) and the continuation of ETF net flows. Until on-chain data confirm a trend reversal, it may be more prudent to view this rally as a cautious rebound following structural optimization, with the real market move awaiting clearer demand signals.