【Gold Price Trends】State Street: Gold prices may return to the $5,500 level in March; the opportunity cost of holding gold continues to decline

Reports indicate that U.S. President Trump has prepared for a long-term confrontation with Iran, causing commodity prices to rebound. State Street Global Advisors believes that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered at least a temporary rise in crude oil prices, and gold prices may rebound to the $5,500 to $5,600 per ounce range in March.

Gold ETF Inflows Reach $10.5 Billion Year-to-Date

U.S.-listed gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $4.5 billion in February, bringing the total inflow to $10.5 billion so far in 2026, a significant increase from $6.3 billion in the first two months of 2025. Despite a 65% annual return, global gold fund assets account for less than 1% of total ETF and mutual fund assets as of the end of 2025.

“Gold remains an underallocated asset in investment portfolios, with significant room for tactical and strategic position expansion in 2026.”

Gold Price Outlook: $4,750 to $5,500 in Basic Scenario

The U.S. dollar has continued to weaken this year, remaining flat in February and rebounding in early March. State Street notes that the market remains generally bearish on the dollar, which could continue to support gold bullion and precious metal prices. Meanwhile, the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) is near 1%, hitting a new low since late 2022, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

State Street maintains a positive outlook for gold prices, with a basic scenario forecast of $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce. There is a 35% chance prices could rise to the $5,500 to $6,250 range, with strong support at $4,400 to $4,600.