#加密市场上涨

Crypto Market Pullback from Highs: Volatility and Shakeout Under Macro Pressure and Unlocking Waves

On March 6, 2026, after a strong rebound driven by policy positive news the previous day, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad pullback today. Bitcoin (BTC) price retreated to around $71,000, while Ethereum (ETH) followed the market weakness. Profit-taking and shakeout led to increased bullish and bearish battles.

1. Market Overview: High-Level Pullback, Intensified Bull-Bear Battle

As of this morning, leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin was quoted at approximately $71,000, down from a high of $73,555 within 24 hours. Ethereum followed the correction, trading around $2,070. The total market capitalization fell back to about $2.82 trillion, down 3.4% in 24 hours.

The pullback was accompanied by increased trading volume, with a total of $521 million in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for 65% of liquidations, indicating some leverage was cleaned out, and market disagreement increased.

This correction was mainly influenced by three factors:

Macro Pressure: U.S. February ADP employment data exceeded expectations, raising the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March to 97.3%. Rate hike expectations were pushed back to July, and the dollar strengthened, suppressing risk assets.

Mass Unlocking Selling Pressure: Over $6 billion worth of tokens are expected to unlock in March, including about $317 million from Hyperliquid (HYPE) today. WhiteBIT (WBT) alone accounts for nearly 70% of project unlocks, creating significant short-term supply pressure.

Technical Profit-Taking: After breaking above $73,000, Bitcoin faced dual pressure from previous trapped positions and short-term profit-taking, requiring technical consolidation.

2. Key Influencing Factors Analysis

1. Policy Support as a Bottom Line, Mid-Term Trend Unchanged

Despite short-term pressure, the medium-term policy outlook remains positive. Legislation like the U.S. CLARITY Act for crypto market structure is expected to pass by mid-year, providing regulatory clarity. The White House crypto summit is scheduled for March 7, with market expectations for more policy details. Meanwhile, Hong Kong will issue its first stablecoin licenses in March, and the EU’s MiCA regulation will fully implement on March 25, accelerating global compliance and boosting long-term confidence.

2. Improved Capital Structure, but Institutional Entry Slows

Bitcoin spot ETF fund outflows have recently eased, with some days seeing inflows of about $500 million. On-chain data shows that long-term holders’ selling speed has dropped to the lowest since June 2025, indicating bottom-level holdings are stabilizing. However, institutional funds remain cautious, with slower entry pace, relying mainly on existing capital for market battles.

3. Market Sentiment and Technical Structure

CryptoQuant research indicates that recent upward movements resemble a short-term “relief rally” driven by easing selling pressure rather than the start of a new bull cycle. Technical indicators show Bitcoin’s daily MACD has a bullish crossover but not yet confirmed, RSI is near 50 in neutral territory, and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening with price near the middle band, indicating a short-term sideways pattern.

3. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Bitcoin (BTC)

Trend Judgment: The 4-hour chart shows a high-level correction, while the daily remains above the 20-day moving average (~$70,000), so the medium-term rebound structure remains intact.

Key Support: First support at $71,000 (intraday low), strong support at $70,000 (20-day MA and psychological level). If broken, further decline to around $68,000 is possible.

Key Resistance: First resistance at $72,500, strong resistance at $73,500–$74,000 (yesterday’s high and upper Bollinger Band).

Ethereum (ETH)

Trend Judgment: Follows Bitcoin’s correction, with the 4-hour moving averages still bullish but turning downward; watch the 20-day MA at $2,050 for support.

Key Support: First support at $2,050–$2,080, strong support at $2,000 (psychological level).

Key Resistance: First resistance at $2,120, strong resistance at $2,180.

4. Trading Strategies and Risk Alerts

Overall Approach: The market is in a broad consolidation pattern supported by policy positives and capped by macro pressures. Trading should focus on buying dips, strictly controlling chasing risks, waiting for support signals to stabilize, entering lightly in batches, and setting strict stop-losses.

Specific Strategies:

Bitcoin (BTC): Watch for price retracement to $70,500–$71,500 with signs of stabilization (e.g., hourly bullish candles, volume increase). Consider entering long positions gradually. Stop-loss below $70,000 (effective break below the 20-day MA). Targets: first at $72,500, second at $73,500. Partial profit-taking can be considered at the first target.

Ethereum (ETH): Watch for price stabilization at $2,050–$2,080, then consider gradual long entries. Stop-loss below $2,020. Targets: first at $2,120, second at $2,180.

Risk Warnings:

Macro Risks: U.S. February non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. If data exceeds expectations strongly, it could further reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, suppressing risk assets.

Event Risks: The White House crypto summit on March 7 may release important policy signals, causing market volatility. It’s advised to hold light positions or avoid overnight holdings during U.S. trading hours.

Unlocking Selling Pressure: Ongoing large token unlocks in March (especially WBT) may continue to weigh on market sentiment and prices.

Summary: Today’s market correction results from policy digestion, macro pressures, and technical adjustments. Short-term expectations are for wide-range consolidation within key support and resistance zones. Investors should remain patient, cautiously position after support confirmation, strictly control leverage and positions, focus on main assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and closely monitor macro data and policy developments.
$BTC