U.S. Stocks Close | Dow Jones Falls 784 Points, Dropping as Much as 1,162 Points, Nasdaq Declines 0.3% Oil Futures Rise Above $80, Brent Crude Surges Past $85

The escalation of the Iran conflict has caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices and triggered a new round of selling in the bond market; Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire with the United States and Israel, and believes there is no reason to negotiate, asserting that this conflict is a war initiated by the U.S.

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The conflict has pushed international oil prices higher, U.S. bond yields have risen, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average once dropped over 1,162 points, closing down 784 points at 47,954; the Nasdaq once fell 1.35% but recovered most losses to close down 0.26% at 22,748; the S&P 500 declined 0.57% to 6,830.

NY crude oil futures surged 8.5%, the largest single-day increase in nearly six years, closing at $81.01 per barrel, a new high since July 2024; Brent crude rose 4.93%, closing at $85.41.

The US dollar index rose above 99, up 0.3%, at 99.04; U.S. long-term bond yields rebounded to 4.14%.

The Middle East conflict is rapidly spreading across the region, including Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijan reports drone attacks, and Tehran claims its naval aircraft attacked a US oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.

Araghchi told NBC on Thursday that if President Trump decides to send ground troops into Iran, it would be a disaster for the US, and Iran is confident in its ability to confront US forces.

He questioned, “Iran and the US have negotiated twice, and each time the US attacked Iran midway through negotiations. Why negotiate with the US now?” When asked why Iran attacked several neighboring Arab countries during Ramadan, Araghchi said Iran did not attack Muslim countries, only US facilities.

According to Politico, the US Central Command is requesting additional military intelligence personnel from the Pentagon to support military actions against Iran for at least 100 days, possibly extending into September, significantly longer than President Trump’s earlier estimate of four to five weeks.

Bloomberg reports that Poland’s central bank governor Adam Glapinski proposed selling part of Poland’s gold reserves, raising about $13 billion, to replace EU funding plans and strengthen defense cooperation with the US.

Gold prices in New York temporarily fell 1.5% to as low as $5,062 per ounce on Thursday.

Nvidia closed relatively stable, up 0.16%; Microsoft rose 1.4%. Chipmaker Broadcom is optimistic about AI chip sales prospects, with its stock rising 4.8% against the trend.

First Eagle Investment Management states that rising risks have led insurers to refuse coverage for voyages, causing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to halt in recent days. Continued disruptions could push oil prices higher and severely impact the global economy, especially China and other Asian markets heavily reliant on oil imports through the strait.

The firm notes that although OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels from April, most major oil-producing countries in the alliance depend heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz—meaning ongoing shipping disruptions could make additional output insufficient to ease supply shortages.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK will send four Typhoon fighter jets to Qatar to bolster regional defense. He also said the US has been granted permission to use UK airports for defense missions.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin believes that next week’s upcoming PCE data will show inflation remaining high for several months. With the conflict potentially driving up key consumer prices, persistent inflation and strong recent employment data could alter the Fed’s outlook. The Fed’s rate cuts last year were based on rising labor market risks and declining inflation risks, but recent data suggest the situation has reversed.

For the week ending February 28, initial unemployment claims remained at 213,000, below the expected 215,000; continuing claims increased by 46,000 to 1.868 million, above the forecast of 1.845 million.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market trend:

【23:10】Iran retaliates, expanding the Persian Gulf front, oil prices surge to post-war highs; Dow drops over 496 points

【22:30】Conflict in Iran continues to expand, Brent crude surpasses $84 per barrel; Dow drops 345 points, Nasdaq down 0.2%

【17:45】Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices fluctuate; Dow futures fall 120 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.1%

【13:06】Dow futures down 139 points at 48,657; S&P futures down 9 points at 6,866; Nasdaq futures down 36 points or 0.1% at 25,092.

【13:03】【BTC trend】Bitcoin briefly surges past $73,000, boosted by regulatory concerns and geopolitical safe-haven demand; “Whale” Dario warns of major risks.

【12:37】【US stock analysis】VIX fear index declines, US stocks improve; analysis: market sentiment still risk-averse, oil prices within “manageable” range.

【12:29】【Iran crisis】China reportedly instructs major refining companies to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, cancel new contracts, and revoke existing shipping agreements.

【12:14】【Iran crisis】Natural gas prices soar; EU may reconsider Russia’s gas import ban.

【11:48】【AI + chips】Meta plans to develop custom chips for training its AI models.

【11:36】【AI + defense】After Anthropic was blocked by US government, reports indicate ongoing negotiations with the Department of Defense on AI agreements.

【09:57】【US rate cuts】Fed Board member Milan: Iran conflict will not change the need for rate cuts; still expects four cuts this year.

【09:33】【AI + NVDA】Jensen Huang: OpenAI to go public by year-end; no longer considering a $100 billion investment.

【08:47】【AAPL】Apple launches affordable MacBook Neo starting at 4,799 yuan, with four color options and iPhone A18 Pro chip, targeting students and competing with Windows PCs and Chromebooks.

【08:15】【AI + AVGO earnings】Broadcom’s AI revenue doubles; expects AI chip sales to exceed $100 billion next year; stock up 0.5% after hours.

【07:52】【Layoffs】Morgan Stanley reportedly to cut 3%, involving investment banking, trading, and asset management.

【06:49】【Iran crisis】White House: Will take full control of Iranian airspace in the coming hours; Spain has agreed to cooperate with US military (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market conditions on March 4====

Wednesday: Dow up 238 points; Nasdaq up 1.3%; Iran denies indirect peace negotiations with the US; Fed’s Milan supports continued rate cuts.

The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a series of measures to stabilize Persian Gulf oil transportation, indicating US intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has blocked. Iran denies indirect negotiations with the US.

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Market risk sentiment eased slightly; the Dow rose by up to 352 points during the day, closing up 238 points at 48,739; S&P 500 up 0.78% at 6,869; Nasdaq up 1.29% at 22,807.

Key stocks include Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang stating that the plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI may no longer be feasible. Nvidia rose 1.66%.

Tesla gained 3.4%, Broadcom closed up 1.2% after earnings.

The Fed released the Beige Book, indicating that seven of twelve districts experienced slight to moderate economic growth; five districts reported flat or declining activity, up from four previously.

President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair. Fed member Stephen Miran believes that continuing rate cuts remains appropriate, but it’s too early to determine the impact of the Middle East war on the US economy.

The US Department of Defense announced that a US submarine sank an Iranian vessel in international waters—first attack on surface ships since WWII.

Oman reports a Maltese-flagged vessel, SAFEEN PRESTIGE, was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey states NATO shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reports that on the second day of the attack, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. US officials involved expressed skepticism about whether Trump’s government or Iran is truly ready to find a way out.

Markets are watching Iran’s successor choices and whether the US and Israel will escalate bombing.

However, sources say that reports claiming Iran’s involvement are purely propaganda, part of psychological warfare during wartime.

Oil prices sharply narrowed gains; the US dollar index retraced 0.28% to 98.78. Bitcoin briefly surged 9.8% to $74,051.

Amid buying interest at lower levels, spot gold rebounded 2.31%, reaching a high of $5,206.2 per ounce; US long-term bonds steadied at 4.101%.

DWS notes Iran’s current oil output is about 3.13 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply. Short-term supply-demand imbalances can easily push prices higher. Future stability depends on OPEC’s ability to fill supply gaps. Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, states that OPEC’s idle capacity is only about half of Iran’s total production.

He added that if an airstrike causes ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the route could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Therefore, whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, it could severely impact oil supply.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market trend:

【21:30】【Iran crisis】Cargo ships breach the Strait of Hormuz, attacked and set on fire

【21:00】【Oil price trend】How much would oil prices rise if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks?

【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.

**【12:32】US stock analysis】Iran situation caused Dow to fall nearly 1,300 points; analysis: optical communication stocks worth watching, and stocks to buy on dips.

【11:59】【Oil price analysis】Oil briefly rose another 1% to high levels; Trump administration providing insurance for oil tankers; analysis: NY crude at $80 remains a major resistance.

【11:45】【Iran crisis】Middle East tensions unsettle Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stocks drop over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points.

【11:31】【AI + models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, offering more accurate and smoother conversational experience.

【10:21】【Gold price trend】Gold and silver sharply fell then rebounded; gold in Asia surpasses $5,100; silver rebounds 3% to $85.

【08:49】【Iran crisis】Fed officials say war adds new uncertainties to monetary policy; energy prices become key.

【07:23】【Iran crisis】Trump: Cutting off trade with Spain, war ends, oil prices lower than before.

【06:51】【Iran crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market conditions on March 2====

Monday: Trump announces insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points.

The fourth day of Iran war, stock market moves follow Iran’s battlefield news. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil surged 9.5% to $77.98; Dow fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq fell 2.7%, low at 22,124.

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Trump announced that he ordered insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. The market’s decline narrowed; Dow closed down only 403 points at 48,501; S&P down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, NY crude at $74.65, Brent at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz soon.

“Regardless, the US will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index rose by 1.3% during the day but settled at a 0.7% increase, at 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver down 8%, at $82.23.

Manulife notes that global bond yields have recently risen, possibly reflecting market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management states that in the very short term, the Iran war will be negative for stocks, as markets digest geopolitical risks and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative impacts are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the US’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the US as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market trend:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran crisis】Franklin Templeton CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran crisis】Oil briefly up another 1%; analysis: the conflict is unlikely to last long; NY crude at $70–75, gold likely to retreat after tensions ease.

【10:50】【AI + competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic’s Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app in US App Store.

【10:46】【AI + defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to ensure AI is not used for monitoring US citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units.

【10:36】【US tariffs】US Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can proceed quickly.

【10:10】【AI front line】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay debts.

【09:02】【Iran crisis】Liu: Will implement plans to curb oil price surges; Trump administration reportedly has no current plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.

【08:39】【Fed rate cuts】Yellen: Iran conflict adds new uncertainties to US monetary policy; energy prices are a key factor.

【07:23】【Iran crisis】Trump: Cutting off trade with Spain, war will end, and oil prices will be lower than before.

【06:51】【Iran crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market conditions on March 2====

Tuesday: Trump guarantees insurance and escorts oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points.

On the fourth day of the Iran conflict, stock movements follow battlefield news. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil surged 9.5% to $77.98; Dow fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P down 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq down 2.7%, low at 22,124.

See the US stock market close:

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Trump announced that he ordered insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to restore oil transport and stabilize prices. The market’s decline narrowed; Dow closed down only 403 points at 48,501; S&P down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, NY crude at $74.65, Brent at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has instructed the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the US Navy will soon begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Regardless, the US will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index rose by 1.3% during the day but settled at a 0.7% increase, at 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver down 8%, at $82.23.

Manulife states that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more pronounced.

Pictet Wealth Management notes that in the very short term, the Iran war will be negative for stocks, as markets digest geopolitical risks and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative impacts are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the US’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the US as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.