Are Visa and MasterCard easily affected by the impact of AI shopping agents?

Investing.com - Evercore analysts note that although concerns about AI weakening the role of card networks like Visa and MasterCard are increasing, the long-term risks to their business models remain uncertain.

Agency commerce refers to AI assistants making purchases on behalf of consumers and automatically selecting payment methods.

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In theory, this shift could transfer control over payment choices from the checkout page to software platforms that prioritize lower transaction costs or faster settlement. Analysts suggest this could lead merchants or AI agents to steer payments away from traditional card networks to alternative solutions.

In the most extreme cases, AI systems might route transactions directly between parties using stablecoins or other payment channels, potentially reducing the role of card networks in the payment chain and gradually weakening their pricing power over time.

Evercore states that such outcomes would require a series of long-term changes in the payment ecosystem, including merchant approval of automatic purchases, shifts in consumer funding behavior, new liability frameworks, and broader acceptance of alternative payment channels.

Analysts say these barriers remain significant in developed markets.

Nevertheless, the rise of AI-driven shopping has already put pressure on investor sentiment toward card networks. As markets attempt to assess long-term disruption risks, this has led to recent valuation multiples coming under pressure.

Evercore indicates that its current view is more balanced. While AI agents could enhance merchants’ or platforms’ ability to steer payments toward cheaper options, their research suggests this transition will be gradual.

Key constraints include merchant incentives, consumer habits, trust in payment systems, and legal frameworks determining digital transaction liabilities.

The firm states that the near-term impact of agency commerce may focus on which companies control customer interfaces and how to optimize payment options, rather than a rapid shift away from card payments.

Visa and MasterCard can continue to maintain a core position in the system by offering services such as tokenization, security, authentication, and settlement infrastructure, enabling their participation in the next phase of digital commerce rather than being replaced.

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