#BitcoinHitsBearMarketLow

Bitcoin Hits Bear Market Low

Bitcoin has officially entered what looks like a full-blown bear market phase in early February 2026, dropping sharply below the $70,000 psychological level and trading in a tight $68,500–$73,000 range for the past couple of weeks. From its all-time high of around $126,400 back in late October 2025—fueled by post-election euphoria, institutional inflows, and ETF hype—this represents a brutal 45–46% correction. That's not a healthy pullback anymore; it's officially bear territory by the classic 20%+ definition, and it has erased most of the gains made since November 2024.

What triggered this? A perfect storm of macro headwinds. Global risk assets have been under pressure: U.S. equities corrected 12–15% from December highs, tech stocks got hammered on slowing AI spending narratives, and bond yields spiked again as inflation expectations refused to die. Crypto-specific factors piled on—massive ETF outflows (BlackRock's IBIT saw its first multi-week streak of net redemptions), whale distribution at higher levels, and leveraged positions getting flushed in cascades. On-chain data from Glassnode shows realized losses hitting multi-month highs, long-term holder capitulation starting to appear (though still mild compared to 2022), and funding rates turning deeply negative across perpetuals.

Analysts are split but leaning cautious. CryptoQuant's latest bear-market indicator flashed red, suggesting this downtrend could extend into Q2–Q3 2026 unless a major catalyst emerges. Compass Point Research pegged a potential cycle low between $58,000–$68,000, calling current levels the "penultimate" bottom if equities don't recover soon. Meanwhile, some macro voices like those at Fundstrat argue we're seeing the classic post-halving mid-cycle shakeout—similar to 2018 and 2022—where the market purges excess leverage before the next parabolic leg.

From my perspective, watching these cycles repeat, this feels heavy but not terminal. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed when sentiment hits rock-bottom despair, and we're not quite there yet—social volume is down, fear & greed index is stuck in "fear" but not "extreme fear," and retail has barely thrown in the towel. Long-term holders are still net accumulating on-chain (albeit at a slower pace), and miner capitulation hasn't fully kicked in. If the Fed surprises with dovish signals or if geopolitical tensions ease, we could see a sharp relief rally back toward $85K–$90K. But right now, the path of least resistance is sideways to lower.

I'm not selling my stack at these levels. These bear-market lows have always been the stealth accumulation windows for the next bull run. The fundamentals—network hash rate at all-time highs, institutional custody growing, nation-state adoption chatter—haven't disappeared; they've just been drowned out by short-term noise. Patience has rewarded holders through every previous bear, and I believe it will again. This dip isn't the end—it's the setup. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and keep an eye on macro pivots. Bitcoin isn't dead; it's just taking a very deep breath.