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📢 Gate Square Daily | April 29
1️⃣ Geopolitics: Iran is expected to submit a revised proposal to mediator Pakistan within days, after Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's original plan.
2️⃣ Market Update: BTC slides to $77,000; Brent crude rises for a seventh straight day, reaching $110.73/barrel.
3️⃣ Macro Outlook: A "super week" hits financial markets — five major central banks hold rate decisions simultaneously, alongside key economic data and big tech earnings.
4️⃣ Crypto Regulation: Polymarket seeks CFTC approval to bring its core exchange back to the US market.
5️⃣ Industry News: Musk takes the stand accusing OpenAI of "stealing from charity," as old emails reveal his team once offered him a 55% equity stake.

GM！Gate Square is here with you, watching the market together — ups and downs, we’re in it. 📊🐶

#DailyPolymarketHotspot
1. What Is Polymarket and Why Does It Matter?
Polymarket is a prediction market where people trade “yes” or “no” on real-world events. The price of each question reflects the crowd’s estimated probability. If a “Yes” share costs 89 cents, the market is pricing the event at an 89 percent chance. CEO Shayne Coplan explained in a 60 Minutes interview that the platform has about 10,000 active questions across 15 categories, including politics, culture, sports, and finance. A single Irish election saw 135 million dollars in volume, and 3.6 million dollars traded on whether Maduro would leave office in Venezuela by year-end.
This structure reacts faster than polls because participants put money behind their views. Business Insider reported that “free grocery” pop-ups in New York were designed as part of the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi. In Washington, D.C., a Polymarket Bar opened, showing live odds on everything from presidential elections to unusual claims, bringing finance and politics enthusiasts together.
2. The Most Discussed Topics in April 2026
Sports Dominate Everything
According to the Polymarket Daily Brief for April 26, 2026, the top five markets by volume are all championship futures. The NBA Finals and the FIFA World Cup lead the way, with more than 4.5 million dollars in combined 24-hour volume.
• Will the USA win the World Cup? “Yes” is priced at only 1.3 percent, but with 1.48 million dollars in 24-hour volume it was the day’s most active market. Despite home-field advantage, the market sees the USA at roughly 80 to 1.
Geopolitics and Central Banks
The day before, the April 25, 2026 brief showed the US-Iran ceasefire market on top with 11.1 million dollars in volume. The deadline had passed, yet 18 million dollars in liquidity remained locked because the resolution criteria were in dispute.
The same week, ahead of the Fed rate decision, PCE data, and GDP numbers, sentiment was “greed, not fear.” The VIX was at 18.70 and the Fear and Greed Index sat at 69.
Climate and Record Heat
Polymarket’s market on whether 2026 will be the hottest year on record prices “second hottest” at 55.5 percent and “first” at 35.5 percent. NOAA data shows January–March 2026 was among the five warmest starts on record. The chance that April 2026 will be the third hottest April on record is priced at 85.5 percent.
3. Frequently Mentioned Coin and Stock Markets
Polymarket covers more than politics and sports; crypto and equities also appear in the “hotspot” list.
Bitcoin’s 150,000 Dollar Scenario
The April 25 brief notes that Bitcoin reaching 150,000 dollars is priced at 1.35 percent. Some call it a dream, but others still put money on the small chance.
Palantir PLTR April 2026 Target
Markets opened on where PLTR will be in April 2026. The stock traded near 143 dollars at the end of April. Analyst targets average 196 dollars and go up to 260 dollars. The Q1 earnings on May 4 are a key catalyst.
Ethereum, Solana, and Altcoin ETFs
The Edge of Show podcast discussed altcoin ETFs and Polymarket’s regulatory approval. ETF expectations are moving prediction markets for major coins such as ETH and SOL.
4. Why Is There So Much Interest? 1. Speed: Polls take days, but Polymarket odds react to new information in seconds. Wembanyama’s injury news was priced in real time. 2. Transparency: Everyone can see positions, volume, and liquidity. The 18.3 million dollars of liquidity in the US-Iran market shows how seriously the decision is taken. 3. Balance of Entertainment and Information: On one side is the Fed decision; on the other, questions like “Will a popular singer be expecting in 2024?” In a 60 Minutes street interview, the chance of a ZYN ban was priced at 11 percent and the singer question at 16 percent. Participants who guessed correctly earned 20 dollars. 4. Cultural Impact: In a video by Ryan Kho with 1.8 million likes, unusual questions such as “What happens before GTA VI comes out?”, “Will GPT-6 be released?”, and “Will Bitcoin reach 1 million dollars?” were priced between 49 and 63 percent. It blends curiosity with humor. 5. Risks and Debates
In 60 Minutes comments, some label Polymarket as “family-wrecking gambling,” criticizing bets on sensitive topics and the risk of addiction. Supporters argue that financial incentives push people to gather better information. Although restricted in the US, interest is not fading; physical venues like the bar in Washington are opening.
6. How to Track the Hotspots • Volume: Markets exceeding 1 million dollars in 24 hours usually make headlines. The US World Cup and Iran ceasefire are examples. • Liquidity: Large markets awaiting resolution with more than 10 million dollars in liquidity mean the decision could move the market. • Odds Changes: Odds jumping from 5 percent to 20 percent on news can signal an information opportunity. • Category Variety: Not just crypto; climate, technology, entertainment. The April temperature market generated 85,200 dollars in volume.
Summary
In 2026, Polymarket has become a real-time gauge pricing everything from sports excitement to Fed decisions, from Bitcoin scenarios to climate records on one board. The #DailyPolymarketHotspot tag points to the topics with the most money and discussion that day. Whether you are an investor or a curious observer, the odds show you what the crowd thinks, what it is pricing in, and what it might be missing.
Keep an eye on volume and listen for news, because the next hotspot can change with a post, an injury, or a central bank statement.

#StraitOfHormuz #IranUSNegotiations
#GateSquareDaily
Hormuz-Focused New Diplomacy: Critical Negotiation Process Between the Trump Administration and Iran
As of 2026, Middle Eastern geopolitics is once again witnessing a high-intensity diplomatic crisis that is reshaping global balances. A critical meeting was held in Washington by Donald Trump’s national security team to evaluate a new negotiation proposal submitted by Iran. This development is emerging as part of a multi-layered diplomatic process centered particularly on the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Three-Stage Negotiation Plan
According to current reports, Iran’s proposal is not a single-track ceasefire initiative but rather a structured three-phase strategic framework:
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing maritime traffic
Temporary de-escalation of regional conflicts and partial easing of sanctions
Postponement of nuclear negotiations to a later stage
This approach indicates that Tehran’s priority is to create immediate “economic breathing space” and restore its energy export capacity. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows, sits at the center of this plan.
Washington’s Response and Strategic Reservations
The United States has taken a cautious stance toward the proposal. According to assessments presented to Trump’s national security team, Washington’s main concern is the postponement of the nuclear file.
The U.S. position is built around three core demands:
Direct and immediate engagement on Iran’s nuclear program
Clear commitments regarding enriched uranium stockpiles
A verifiable and permanent free passage regime in the Strait of Hormuz
Therefore, the U.S. administration views Iran’s proposal as a “partial and phased concession model” and considers it a potential strategic risk.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Heart of Global Energy Security
The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a regional waterway but one of the most critical arteries of the global energy system. Recent tensions have once again placed it at the center of the global economic agenda.
International reports highlight that instability in the strait:
Increases volatility in global oil prices
Disrupts supply chains worldwide
Places significant pressure on Asian economies in particular
For this reason, both the United States and European countries consider maintaining open navigation through the strait a strategic priority.
Multi-Layered Diplomatic Tensions
Recent developments point to a complex diplomatic process driven by parallel negotiation channels rather than a direct bilateral agreement. Countries such as Pakistan, Oman, and Russia are playing mediating roles, turning the process into a multi-centered diplomatic structure.
However, the main deadlock remains unchanged:
Iran’s priority: easing economic isolation and maintaining influence over Hormuz dynamics
U.S. priority: limiting nuclear capability and ensuring regional security
Overall Assessment
The current situation suggests that rather than a comprehensive agreement in the short term, a partial and temporary compromise appears more likely. The diplomatic crisis centered on the Strait of Hormuz is affecting not only Iran–U.S. relations but also global energy security.
In the coming period, Washington’s response will likely represent a critical turning point that could shape not only the future of the Middle East but also global oil markets and broader geopolitical stability.

Market Dynamics: BTC Below $77,000, Gold Edges Higher, Brent Crude Surges Past $107
Global markets continue to price in the pressure that Middle East geopolitical tensions are placing on energy and risk assets. The picture is clear: safe-haven demand is pushing gold higher, while the Strait of Hormuz risk premium has carried Brent crude above $107. Bitcoin, caught in this risk-off wave, has slipped below $77,000.
1. Bitcoin: $77,000 Support Broken, Institutional Buying Continues
After testing $79,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin fell to around $77,800 on Monday and dropped as low as $76,880 during the session. This level had been viewed as the peak of the last 12 weeks.
What’s Behind the Decline
• Geopolitical Pressure: The postponement of U.S.-Iran talks and the boarding of two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and reduced risk appetite. • Liquidations: Roughly $300 million in positions were liquidated over the last 24 hours. Liquidations in Ethereum exceeded those in Bitcoin. • ETF Flows: Despite the pullback, institutional demand remains strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded inflows for nine straight days, totaling $2.12 billion. Inflows were $223.3 million on April 23 and $14.4 million on April 24.
Institutional Activity Remains Active
A major public company acquired 3,273 BTC at an average price of $77,906 between April 20 and April 26, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Industry leaders note that institutional investors are treating Bitcoin prices below $70,000 as a buying signal. On February 2, more than $100 million in institutional inflows were recorded in a single day.
Technical Outlook
BTC had previously closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490. The $80,000 level stands out as psychological resistance. Analysts see risk of a pullback toward $75,000 if BTC closes below $76,500. Prediction markets currently price the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of June at 1.35%.
2. Brent Crude: Above $107 on Hormuz Premium
Brent crude traded at $108.62 per barrel on April 28, up 0.36%. WTI was at $96.92 per barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent is up 17% and WTI is up 13%.
Drivers Behind the Rise
• Strait of Hormuz: Flows through the strait, which carries 9.1 million barrels per day, have declined significantly. This has been described as the most severe energy supply shock on record. • Inventories: Global oil inventories are heading toward all-time lows. Physical spot cargoes are trading at premiums. • Forecasts: In a scenario where disruptions in Hormuz last 21 days, Brent forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 have been revised up to $90 per barrel. In a worst-case scenario, the March–April average could be $110 per barrel. 3. Gold: Near Record Levels on Safe-Haven Demand
Geopolitical risk and inflation concerns tied to higher oil are supporting gold. Spot gold is around $4,708 per ounce. In India, 24-karat gold is around 15,442 rupees per gram, or 1,54,420 rupees per 10 grams.
2026 Performance: Gold has risen by roughly 18,000 rupees so far in 2026. On December 31, 2025, 10 grams were priced at 1.33 lakh rupees, compared with around 1.51 lakh rupees now.
Analyst View: Analysts note that tension in Hormuz is providing geopolitical support for gold. Technical resistance is at $4,850, and a break could open a path toward $5,000. Support sits at $4,650.
What Markets Are Watching
For Bitcoin, the level is $77,800. The driving forces are risk-off sentiment, ETF inflows, and institutional buying. The critical threshold is $80,000 resistance and $76,500 support.
For Brent, the level is $108.62. The drivers are the Hormuz disruption and supply deficit. The key psychological resistance is $110.
For gold, the level is $4,708 per ounce. The drivers are safe-haven demand and oil-driven inflation risk. Resistance is at $4,850.
Conclusion: Markets are currently pricing the “energy shock + geopolitical risk” theme. Supply risk in oil is keeping inflation alive, which is delaying expectations for rate cuts. That creates short-term pressure for risk assets like Bitcoin, while institutional accumulation and ETF inflows are forming a floor. Gold is finding support from both the geopolitical and inflation angles.
In the coming week, the number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran will determine the direction of all three assets. Analysts warn of the risk that Bitcoin could retest $75,000.
#MarketUpdate #GlobalMarkets #MacroOutlook #Geopolitics
#GateSquareDaily
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌$DOGE ‌

China Blocks Meta’s Acquisition of AI Startup Manus
In the global artificial intelligence race, cross-border acquisitions by tech giants have transcended commercial competition to become matters of national security. China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has officially blocked Meta’s attempt to acquire the Singapore-based AI startup Manus for approximately $2–3 billion, instructing both parties to fully unwind the transaction.
Background and Investigation
Meta initially announced the acquisition of Manus in December 2025. Founded in 2022 by Chinese engineers Xiao Hong, Ji Yichao, and Tao Zhang, Manus gained significant attention for its "general-purpose AI agent" technology, capable of autonomously executing complex tasks such as data analysis, coding, and website creation. However, just weeks after the announcement in January 2026, Chinese authorities launched a comprehensive investigation. The probe focused on potential violations of foreign investment rules, technology export controls, and security regulations.
Grounds for Nullification
In a statement issued by the Commission, it was declared that foreign investment in the Manus project is prohibited under current legal frameworks, requiring the parties to withdraw the acquisition. Findings indicated that although Manus closed its China offices and moved its headquarters to Singapore in July 2025, its parent company, Butterfly Effect, remained under the control of the founding team. Regulators emphasized that because the core research and development were conducted within China, the asset holds strategic value under Chinese jurisdiction.
Enforcement and Integration Challenges
Since the acquisition announcement, Meta has deeply integrated the Manus team with its own staff in Singapore. With roughly 100 employees already moved to Meta offices and management reporting lines established, disentangling operations and intellectual property remains a complex challenge. Furthermore, the fact that existing investors have already been paid, combined with exit bans reportedly placed on the founders, makes the legal and technical reversal of the deal highly complicated.
AI as a Strategic Asset
This decision clearly illustrates that China views artificial intelligence as a critical strategic asset, similar to semiconductors. Viewed partly as a response to Western chip export restrictions, this move aims to prevent Chinese-origin AI technologies from falling under the control of foreign firms. Analysts see this as part of a broader trend of reciprocal technology restrictions between Washington and Beijing.
A New Era for Tech Investment
The Manus case suggests that "offshoring" models—where startups move headquarters to avoid geopolitical risks—may no longer be effective. In an era where "corporate nationality" is being redefined by AI, the birthplace of a technology is becoming the primary factor in determining which regulatory authority holds sway. This shift is set to fundamentally reshape the landscape of future technology investments, talent transfers, and corporate mergers.
#ManusAI #NDRC #USChinaTech #AITakeover
#GateSquareDaily