The rate cut has indeed arrived! The core points of Powell's speech boil down to two key changes explained in plain language:
1. Looking at the Fed's latest interest rate plans, there will be only one rate cut around 2026, much less than what the market previously expected. It’s like there’s basically no room for rate cuts next year.
2. There’s both bad news and good news. The Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of assets this month, which is equivalent to injecting money into the market. And this will start this month, more aggressive than expected, making it a solid positive signal.
However, it’s important to note that the Fed said this isn’t a routine easing measure; they are buying short-term US Treasuries to address the current tightness in the overnight lending market. They won’t keep buying indefinitely, and at some point next year, they will stop.
Overall, the Fed first poured cold water on the idea of fewer rate cuts next year, then offered the "liquidity injection" this month as a sweetener. The result is somewhat decent. The crypto and US stock markets have already risen due to this unexpected liquidity boost, but since the subsequent meetings still indicate no rate cuts, it’s uncertain whether this rally can be sustained. Everyone should stay alert and beware of a correction after the good news is priced in.
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The rate cut has indeed arrived! The core points of Powell's speech boil down to two key changes explained in plain language:
1. Looking at the Fed's latest interest rate plans, there will be only one rate cut around 2026, much less than what the market previously expected. It’s like there’s basically no room for rate cuts next year.
2. There’s both bad news and good news. The Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of assets this month, which is equivalent to injecting money into the market. And this will start this month, more aggressive than expected, making it a solid positive signal.
However, it’s important to note that the Fed said this isn’t a routine easing measure; they are buying short-term US Treasuries to address the current tightness in the overnight lending market. They won’t keep buying indefinitely, and at some point next year, they will stop.
Overall, the Fed first poured cold water on the idea of fewer rate cuts next year, then offered the "liquidity injection" this month as a sweetener. The result is somewhat decent. The crypto and US stock markets have already risen due to this unexpected liquidity boost, but since the subsequent meetings still indicate no rate cuts, it’s uncertain whether this rally can be sustained. Everyone should stay alert and beware of a correction after the good news is priced in.