Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The market fluctuates at a high level, and the RWA narrative is hot

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. The minutes of the Fed’s June meeting showed that almost all officials believed that interest rates will be raised several times this year, but at a slower pace, emphasizing that high inflation is one of the key considerations for the outlook for monetary policy, and maintaining expectations for a mild economic recession in 2023 No change, but confidence in a soft landing for the economy has grown. US stocks were strong, with the Nasdaq index hitting its best performance in 20 years. The encryption market continues to fluctuate sideways, and its correlation with US stocks has declined.

Second, the whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

The market fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and altcoins were active. BlackRock, Fidelity Fund, etc. have resubmitted BTC spot ETF applications, and the probability of passing this round has greatly increased. The main line of the market is the opportunities under the supervision of the US SEC, namely RWA and POW.

1. MKR: The RWA revenue of MKR whose real assets are on the chain accounts for 50%, and the RWA business scale of 1.2 billion US dollars has a first-mover advantage. If RWA is regulated, MKR will limit exposure to 25%. At the same time, MKR is linked to the surplus of protocol income. When the surplus exceeds 250 million US dollars, MKR will be repurchased and destroyed to enter the deflation mode. On the contrary, if the agreement generates bad debts, MKR will be issued to make up for the debts.
2. XVG: XVG, a private payment, was originally delisted by Binance Exchange in response to European regulatory requirements. Later, on June 26, it revoked the delisting decision and opened a new contract.
3. LBR: The LBR mining income of the liquid staking track is relatively high, and the V2 version will be launched in August, which is similar to RDNT’s 5% LP lock-up model.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

BTC ushered in a certain degree of recovery. In June, the transaction volume on the BTC chain increased by 33% last month, while the transaction volume on the ETH chain decreased by 2%. Spot volumes on centralized exchanges finally rose 6% in June after hitting their lowest level since November 2020.

Market funds continue to flow out, and the current US bond risk-free rate of 5% is more tempting. In June, the transaction volume on the stablecoin chain rose by 20%, but the supply of stablecoins continued to shrink by 3%. Among them, the USDT market share continued to rise to 70%.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.76, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total open interest remained high this week, and the main funds did not leave the market. In June, the overall open interest of BTC futures rose by 21%, but the open interest of ETH futures fell by 5%, and the market hotspots mainly revolved around BTC.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.2. Market sentiment is not apparent. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

BTC fluctuated at a high level this week. In the past three weeks, miners have sold 54,000 BTC to the Binance Exchange, with upward selling pressure. Stablecoins continue to flow out, and the market lacks incremental funding. It will still take time for the spot ETFs to be positive, and the short-term market will follow the fluctuations of US stocks.

B. Market Data:

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

This week, the mainstream currency market continued to pick up, TVL increased by 0.9 b, and the TVL ratio of the ETH chain also rebounded compared with the previous two weeks, remaining around 59%.

Judging from the TVL data of the past seven days, the market is in a state of high volatility, and the TVL of popular public chains has basically risen to varying degrees. The TVL of the BSC chain is up 2.09%, while Solana is up 11.31%. And the core public chain TVL of all the second-tier Ethereum networks has risen, Arbitrum rose 0.69%, Optimism rose 10.13% this week, Polygon rose 4.43%, and Avalanche rose 2.55%.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Tron Lockup Amount

4) Avalanche Lockup Amount

5) Polygon lock-up amount

6) Arbitrum Lockup Amount

7) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.02, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $9.32, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $3.62. Compared with last week, the gas fee has risen significantly. The market has recovered recently and is at a high level of volatility. Gas has rebounded to the highest point in nearly two months.

The deposit fees on the second layer network are as follows: Arbitrum $ 4.06, Optimisim $ 7.61, Polygon $ 7.53, ZkSync $ 7.24.

Five, NFT market data changes

1) NFT-500 Index:

2) NFT market conditions:

3) NFT trading market share:

4) Analysis of NFT Buyers:

5) Top 5 collections Volume：

From the perspective of transaction volume and market volume, the NFT market is at an absolute bottom. It can be seen from the recent significant decline in the volume of Top 5 collections that the overall transaction volume and volume, including blue-chip NFT projects, are very sluggish. Azuki still fell by more than 24% in a single week, and the overall market value of NFT is still declining.

Blur’s transaction volume is still in an absolute leading position. This week, new and old users of NFT transactions have fallen off a cliff, and the number of new NFT users entering the market has also continued to decrease. There has been no upward trend in recent months.

Six, the latest financing situation of the project

About Foresight Ventures

Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund “Foresight Secondary Fund l”, with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of “Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term” and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.