Yield Basis Price Prediction: Target of $0.84 by 2030, but the technicals look bearish?

Yield Basis (YB) is currently trading at approximately $0.658, showing extremely high short-term fluctuation. However, the Technical Analysis presents conflicting signals: both the 50-day and 200-day MA are in a bearish trend, the RSI is in the neutral zone between 30 and 70, and the MACD is at the zero line crossover.

Despite the short-term technical analysis showing a fall, the Yield Basis price prediction model based on a 5% annual compound growth suggests that by 2030, YB may reach $0.8426, an increase of about 28% from the current price. Community predictions are even more optimistic, with a peak target price of $3.641. This divergence between technical analysis and long-term forecasts necessitates that investors deeply understand the limitations of different forecasting methods.

Technical Analysis indicates short-term fall pressure

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

The technical analysis section of the Yield Basis price forecast reveals significant bearish signals. On the 4-hour timeframe, YB is currently in a bearish trend, with the 50-day MA declining. More importantly, the 200-day MA has been sloping downwards since September 16, 2025, indicating a weaker trend. Moving averages are one of the most commonly used technical indicators in the cryptocurrency market, used to identify important resistance and support levels.

When the 50-day and 200-day MAs are both showing a bearish trend, it usually indicates medium-term downward pressure. The 50-day MA reflects recent price momentum, while the 200-day MA represents long-term trends. A simultaneous decline in both means that both short-term and long-term holders are facing loss pressure, which may trigger further sell-offs. If the YB price falls below these key MAs, it is generally seen as a signal of market weakness, potentially triggering stop-loss orders and technical selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the neutral zone between 30-70, indicating a neutral price trend, and the price is able to maintain the RSI in this state for a period of time. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, with values below 30 considered oversold and above 70 considered overbought. The current neutral reading suggests that YB is neither in extreme overbought nor oversold territory, providing room for bidirectional fluctuations in price.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is currently at the zero line crossover point, which is considered a key trading signal. Typically, when the MACD line is above the zero line, it indicates positive momentum, which may be a buying signal; while when the MACD line is below the zero line, it indicates negative momentum, which may be a selling signal. The zero line crossover represents a balance of power between bulls and bears, and the subsequent trend depends on which side breaks out first. Combined with the bearish trend of the MA, if the MACD breaks down through the zero line, it will confirm a bearish pattern.

Short-term Price Forecast and Daily Fluctuation Path

According to the Yield Basis price prediction model, the short-term trend indicates a moderate decline in price. It is expected that the value of YB will decrease to 0.656675 USD, potentially dropping to 0.657114 USD by the end of this week (October 23, 2025). By November 15, 2025, the price may rebound to 0.659137 USD. This short-term forecast reflects a bearish bias in Technical Analysis, but the fall is relatively mild, indicating that the market has not yet entered a panic sell-off phase.

The daily price forecast shows that YB will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations over the next 30 days. From $0.656587 on October 16, 2025, to $0.659137 on November 15, the price change is only about 0.4%. This low fluctuation contrasts sharply with the intense fluctuation of 64.13% within 24 hours, suggesting that there may be significant intraday volatility in the short term, but the overall trend remains relatively stable.

Traders need to be aware that this short-term forecast is based on Technical Analysis and historical data. Due to the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, the longer the forecast period, the lower the accuracy. Typically, one year is the limit for the forecast period in Technical Analysis. For Yield Basis price predictions, forecasts within 30 days are relatively reliable, but adjustments should still be made in conjunction with real-time market dynamics.

Key price levels to watch include: a break below $0.65 could trigger a further downside to $0.60; Holding $0.658 and breaking above $0.67 could challenge the $0.70 resistance. The formation of these support and resistance levels is based on historical volume distributions and Fibonacci retracement levels and is an area that technical traders pay close attention to.

Medium to Long-term Price Forecast and Compound Growth Model

The medium to long-term outlook for Yield Basis price forecasting is based on an annual compound growth model of 5%. According to this model, YB may reach $0.6602 by the end of 2025, rise to $0.69321 in 2026, reach $0.72787 in 2027, and finally hit $0.8426 by 2030. This forecasting method assumes that YB can maintain a stable annual growth rate of 5%, which equates to a conservative long-term investment return expectation.

The complete forecast path from 2025 to 2030 shows: 2028 will be $0.76426, 2029 will be $0.80248, 2031 will further rise to $0.88473, and 2032 will reach $0.92897. The advantage of this linear compound interest model is its simplicity and transparency, but the downside is that it cannot reflect the cyclical fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market. In fact, YB may surge in certain years while experiencing significant pullbacks in others.

The community's predictions for the Yield Basis are more extensive, ranging from $0.6602 to $3.641 and peaking at $3.641. This huge price range reflects the divergence of market participants on the long-term value of YB. Optimists believe that if the project achieves key milestones, the price may skyrocket by more than 5 times; Conservatives argue that maintaining moderate growth is no longer easy.

The “Hot Money Model” used by analysts provides another perspective for predictions. This model analyzes the liquidity and holding data of hot money, which are too dispersed for AI to collect effectively. Therefore, for forecasts beyond 6 months, the accuracy of manual analysis is about 50% higher than that of AI. This methodological difference explains why there may be significant discrepancies in the Yield Basis price predictions across different platforms.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Three Forecasting Methods and Applicable Scenarios

Yield Basis price prediction mainly uses three methods: Technical Analysis, Valuation, and MVRV. Technical Analysis calculates future prices based on historical data, suitable for short-term trading and contract operations. Due to the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, the longer the prediction period, the lower the accuracy, usually one year is the limit. Currently, the bearish signals shown by Technical Analysis are mainly applicable to short-term trading decisions and should not be directly applied to long-term investment judgments.

The valuation method focuses on value investing, abandoning Technical Analysis, and delving into the intrinsic value of assets, thereby reducing trading frequency. This method is often adopted by legendary investors and is crucial for spot investments. When market participants talk about investing in crypto assets and achieving returns several times the invested amount, they refer to buying spot based on valuation and holding it for the medium to long term. However, for tokens like YB with smaller market capitalizations, fundamental data is often insufficient, making valuation difficult.

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) requires a large amount of data, among which the most critical are the prices and quantities of YB purchased through on-chain wallets, which requires meticulous calculations. MVRV only predicts whether the current price is high or low, and is usually used in conjunction with valuation strategies to determine when to buy or sell. The limitation of this method lies in the need for transparent on-chain data, making it difficult to calculate accurately for projects with incomplete data.

The average price forecast uses the MA indicator to calculate the annual average growth rate over the past 5 years. If the available data is less than 5 years, the actual number of years of data is used. For tokens that have been listed for less than 3 months, this data cannot be calculated. The advantage of this method is that it is based on historical real performance, but the disadvantage is that it assumes the future will repeat the past, which may fail in times of drastic market changes.

Investment Risks and Decision Framework

Yield Basis price forecast faces multiple risk factors. First, there is a divergence between the technical and fundamental aspects. Current technical indicators show a bearish trend, but long-term models predict an increase; this contradiction may lead short-term traders and long-term investors to draw completely opposite conclusions. Investors must clarify their time frame; short-term trading should follow Technical Analysis, while long-term investment should focus on fundamentals and valuation.

Secondly, there is the high fluctuation of the cryptocurrency market. A price fluctuation of 64.13% within 24 hours indicates that YB is a high-risk asset, suitable for investors with a strong risk tolerance. Predictions show that the price change in the next 30 days will be only 0.4%, but this does not mean that the actual fluctuation will be so stable. Sudden news, regulatory changes, or shifts in market sentiment can all trigger severe fluctuations.

The third is the limitations of forecasting methods. All Yield Basis price forecasts are based on historical data and mathematical models, and cannot foresee black swan events. AI algorithms and manual analysis each have their strengths and weaknesses; the former excels at handling big data, while the latter can capture subtle changes in market sentiment. Combining various forecasting methods and maintaining dynamic adjustments is key to improving the quality of decision-making.

Regulatory dynamics and technological advancements are key external factors affecting the long-term price of YB. Changes in global digital currency regulatory policies may significantly alter the market environment, while the technological breakthroughs or partnerships of the Yield Basis project itself can also impact its valuation. Investors should pay attention to these fundamental changes rather than solely relying on mathematical models for predictions.

Yield Basis Price Prediction FAQ Q&A

Q1: Yield Basis Why is the long-term forecast still bullish despite the current Technical Analysis being bearish?

A: Technical Analysis reflects short-term market sentiment and capital flow. The current downtrend of the 50-day and 200-day MAs indicates significant recent selling pressure. However, long-term forecasts are based on a 5% annual compound growth model, assuming the project can continue to develop. This kind of divergence is quite common; short-term trading should follow the technical aspects, while long-term investments should focus on the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe and wait for technical indicators to strengthen in the short term, and if the fundamentals look promising in the long term, one can gradually build a position.

Q2: How reliable is the prediction of $0.84 in 2030? Why is there such a large gap compared to the community's highest of $3.641?

A: $0.84 is based on a conservative 5% annual compound interest model, suitable for risk-averse investors' reference. $3.641 is the highest expectation of the optimistic community, assuming the project achieves significant breakthroughs. The actual price may fall between the two. The cryptocurrency market has high fluctuations, and the error range for a 5-year forecast is very wide. It is advised to treat $0.84 as the baseline scenario and $3.641 as the extreme bull market scenario, and it should not be used as an investment basis.

Q3: Which is more accurate, AI algorithm predictions or human analyst predictions?

A: According to exchange data, for forecasts over 6 months, the accuracy rate of manual analysis is about 50% higher than that of AI, as analysts can capture liquidity and stock data in the “hot money model.” However, AI excels at processing large amounts of historical data and technical indicators. It is recommended to prioritize AI Technical Analysis for the short term (1-6 months) and to combine manual analysis for valuation judgments in the medium to long term (over 6 months). The best strategy is to use both methods in conjunction for cross-validation.

Q4: Is it a good time to buy Yield Basis now? What is the best entry point?

A: The current technical analysis is bearish, and aggressive buying is not recommended. The best entry signals include: the 50-day EMA crossing above the 200-day EMA (golden cross), RSI rebounding from the oversold area (below 30), MACD breaking above the zero line, and an increase in volume accompanying a price rise. If you are optimistic in the long term, you can accumulate in batches in the range of 0.60-0.65 USD, setting a stop-loss below 0.58 USD. Remember to only invest funds that you can afford to lose entirely.

Q5: How to track the latest price predictions and market dynamics of Yield Basis?

A: Key indicators include: the 50/200 day EMA crossover situation, whether the RSI has entered the overbought/oversold zone, the direction of the MACD zero line breakthrough, changes in 24-hour trading volume, community sentiment index, and the milestone progress announced by the project party.