ChainCatcher 消息,加密市场分析师 Axel 在社交媒体上发文表示,过去一周的数据揭示出机构需求叙事与实际资金流向之间日益扩大的鸿沟。ETF 资金流入动能依然不稳,而交易所净流量持续保持正值,代币持续流向而非流出交易平台。过去 7 天美国现货比特币 ETF 总净流出达 11,042 枚 BTC,仅有两个交易日录得净流入。
2 月 12 日单日流出达 6,120 枚 BTC(约合 4.16 亿美元),为本周期最大流出日。2 月 17 日与 18 日连续两个交易日分别流出 1,520 枚和 1,980 枚 BTC,显示机构积累动能尚未形成。与此同时,交易平台供应持续增加,自 2 月初以来,交易平台净流量一直保持正值,过去一周范围在 +391 枚至 +841 枚 BTC 之间。今日读数为 +553 枚 BTC,延续了持续两周的正向流入态势。这与 1 月份持续为负(代币流出交易所)的格局形成鲜明对比。
Axel 表示,两个关键指标均指向同一方向:过去一周 ETF 渠道流出 11,042 枚 BTC,而交易平台供应持续增长。机构需求不仅未能吸收市场新增供应,其本身已成为额外的抛售压力来源。积极积累趋势的确立需要至少连续三个交易日的正向 ETF 净流入,以及交易平台净流量持续转为负值(表明代币被提取出交易所进行托管积累)。未来 3 至 5 个交易日的 ETF 流向将成为判断市场方向的关键变量。
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