January 9: Big Cake: 93090, 92084, 90686(Barometer), 89707, 88309 Small Cake: 3245, 3175, 3114(Barometer), 3045, 2984 Sol: 144.36, 141.34, 147.07(Barometer), 134, 129.67

1 Minute to Understand the Impact of Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Data Release on the Cryptocurrency Market Non-Farm Data Release Time and Expectations Release Time: January 9, 2026 (This Friday) 21:30 (Hong Kong Time) Key Expected Data: December New Jobs: 55,000-60,000 Unemployment Rate: Drop from 4.6% to 4.5% Initial Jobless Claims: 208,000 (Already released, slightly below expectations) odaily Transmission Mechanism of Non-Farm Data on the Crypto Market 1. USD Strength Determines Crypto Asset Valuation Non-farm data directly influences the Fed's rate cut expectations. If employment data exceeds expectations, it will: Strengthen USD appreciation → US Dollar Index rises → Pressure on BTC, ETH, and other USD-denominated assets Delay rate cut expectations → Real interest rates rise → Reduced attractiveness of risk assets Conversely, if data is weaker than expected, it will trigger risk aversion and increased rate cut expectations. fxstreet 2. Rotation of Risk Assets and Liquidity Shocks The current market is in a "numb" state, with tariffs and AI factors causing uncertainty. As a key trigger, non-farm data may lead to: Institutional position adjustments → ETF net inflows/outflows with inverse fluctuations Futures liquidation cascades → Leverage liquidations triggering chain reactions In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $216 million, with shorts accounting for $168 million, indicating high market sensitivity to data. odaily Current Market Sentiment and Data Sensitivity The Fear & Greed Index is at an extremely low level: the latest Fear & Greed Index is only 28 (Extreme Fear), indicating the market has fully priced in pessimistic expectations. This means: Greater upside surprise potential → If data is weaker than expected, rebound may exceed expectations Limited downside risk → The market is already at a low point, further decline is limited Specific Impact Predictions for Mainstream Coins BTC (Bitcoin): If non-farm data exceeds expectations → Test support at $89,800-$90,200, possible drop below $88,800 If non-farm data is weaker than expected → Break through resistance at $94,500, target $95,000-$96,000 ETH (Ethereum): Currently in an oversold rebound phase, weakening non-farm data will strengthen the rebound Key resistance at $3,200-$3,300, support at $2,950 SOL (Solana): Relatively strong, less affected by non-farm data, more driven by risk appetite If risk appetite increases, SOL may lead the rally Investment Strategy Recommendations Position Management: Reduce leverage exposure within 2 hours before the non-farm release to control risk Gradual Positioning: If data is weaker than expected, build long positions in batches, prioritizing SOL > ETH > BTC Stop-Loss Settings: Strictly implement stop-loss, keep leverage within 2-3x Hedging: Gold has rebounded above $4,440 and can be used as a hedge Core Risk Alerts Data Volatility: In 2025, only 710,000 new jobs were added, the weakest since 2003, with high forecast uncertainty Geopolitical Overlay: Tensions in Venezuela are escalating, risk aversion may suppress risk assets AI and Tariff Shocks: The market is in a "numb" state, and non-farm data may become a turning point for sentiment#Gate广场创作者新春激励