#Gate正式接入Polymarket Coin Circle Spot Contracts and Beyond—Another Path to Earning Money: Polymarket

What is Polymarket? Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform based on blockchain technology. It allows users to trade and bet on the outcomes of various future events including politics, economics, technology, culture, sports, weather, and even cryptocurrencies, thereby forming collective predictions about event outcomes.

In simple terms, you can understand it as a market where you "vote" with real money to predict the future. For example, predicting the Federal Reserve's decision in March: you can bet "yes" or "no" on whether there will be a rate cut of 50 basis points or more in March. If you bet "yes," it means you believe there will be a 50 basis point rate cut in March. If the final decision matches your expectation, your $1 investment will generate $1,000 in profit. However, if the final decision differs from your expectation, you lose your invested amount. The difference from pure gambling is that before the event's final result is determined, you can choose to exit anytime by selling your bet shares. Since the event's probability continuously changes, once you place a bet, your unrealized gains or losses keep changing.

For example, using the rate cut example above, if you bet "no" with $5, indicating you believe there won't be a 50 basis point rate cut in March, and currently the probability of the Fed not cutting rates is over 99%, it means if the final decision maintains interest rates unchanged, your $5 bet will still be $5—your account breaks even, neither earning nor losing. This is because the event of no 50 basis point cut in March is now nearly certain. However, if before the rate cut decision is announced, a major event occurs in the United States or economic problems emerge, causing the probability of no rate cut in March to decline somewhat, with some market participants beginning to think this event might cause an unexpected Fed rate cut, then your "no" bet could potentially show a floating gain of $2 on your $5 investment. Before the final decision is announced, you can choose to sell your bet shares and realize a genuine $2 profit. But if you don't sell when you have a $2 floating gain, and later the rate cut decision is announced maintaining interest rates unchanged with no cut, your floating gain disappears and the system automatically settles at break-even. This is quite interesting—after placing a bet on a predicted event, you can anytime choose to exit based on probability changes, allowing you to cut losses or take profits midway before the event is finally confirmed. This is unlike traditional predictions where you must wait for results after betting.

So Polymarket is not a purely gambling platform, because prediction probabilities themselves can be financialized, and probabilities can be bought low and sold high through financial means. Therefore, probability changes themselves are also dynamic and tradable.

What is the Relationship Between Polymarket and the Coin Circle?

First, Polymarket uses blockchain technology at its foundation, utilizing smart contracts on the blockchain to handle transactions and settlement. Once an event result is confirmed, smart contracts automatically execute, with winning contracts valued at $1 and losing ones at $0. Users generate profits through buying low and selling high or holding until expiration.

Second, Polymarket accounts can trade through cryptocurrencies. For example, we can deposit funds from platforms like Coinbase trading accounts to this platform for prediction market trading. Additionally, we can directly call decentralized wallets to trade, just like calling wallets in Dapps—very convenient.

Finally, Polymarket has predictions regarding cryptocurrency price movements.

We can predict price movements of Bitcoin across different time cycles including 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily periods, and more.

Combined with Ichimoku theory, if we currently judge that a 15-minute level downtrend is about to begin, and a 15-minute level downtrend requires at least 5-9 hours to play out, we can predict that the next 4 or 8 hours will be bearish with Bitcoin price moving downward. Based on this judgment, we can bet that the current or next 4-hour period is bearish. As Bitcoin's price changes every moment, the probability of its 4-hour movement going up or down constantly shifts, so whether you bet bullish or bearish, the odds continuously change, meaning your unrealized gains or losses in the account also fluctuate. Yet we can still financialize this betting mode. Through our understanding of short to medium-term price action, we place bets accordingly.

For example, on March 4th, a 1-hour bullish candle directly pulled Bitcoin to 69688. Based on basic cryptocurrency knowledge and understanding, this momentum would likely continue rising, at least breaking through the previous high of 70096. So we bet $100 on 1-hour bullish. During the first half hour, there was a slight pullback with the account showing a floating loss, but in the second half hour it started rising, with Bitcoin directly pulling to 71000. Eventually, the 1-hour bullish prediction succeeded, and in just one hour, the $100 investment generated $140 in profit—more than a hundred percent gain.

How to Make Money Using Polymarket in the Coin Circle?

1、Quantitative Compounding in Prediction Markets
Quantitative trading should be familiar to most—such as Bitcoin spot quantitative trading, perpetual futures quantitative trading, stock market or other market quantitative trading. It can be understood as: through programs, we use indicators at the foundation, historical trading volume data, mathematical models, and statistical analysis to find market patterns and probability advantages to design a set of buy-sell rules. When price movements match the pre-designed buy trading strategy, the program automatically buys for you. When price movements match the sell trading strategy, the program automatically sells for you.

2、Obtaining Polymarket Airdrops

Currently, Polymarket awards points for trading within the platform and achieving certain transaction volumes, which can be exchanged for future airdrop tokens.

From current information, Polymarket is likely to launch a token in the second half of this year or next year. Continuous trading allows you to receive their airdrop tokens.

Airdrops are estimated to provide approximately 1,000-3,000 USDT per account.