#以太坊大户持仓变化 Funding rates have suddenly shifted direction, and this prediction has been verified again

On-chain data never lies. I've been monitoring exchange fund flows for several days, and the pattern matches perfectly with a certain data platform's curve—almost unnervingly so.

Let me cut to the conclusion first: the sentiment inflection point has arrived, but don't get too excited yet. The panic selling for BTC and ETH has basically been washed out. What comes next is oscillations and slow bottom-building. As for altcoins? The timing isn't right yet—we need to keep our ammunition.

Why are the major coins no longer bearish? Just look at the data—funding rates have returned to neutral levels. It might not sound like much, but here's what it means: the wave of frenzied shorting and bearish bets has subsided. Add to that what's actually happening on-chain: whale addresses have been consistently accumulating, while exchange coin holdings aren't increasing and are even slightly flowing out. What does this mean? Big money isn't dumping; instead, there's a possibility they're bottom-fishing. The panic-selling phase has temporarily hit the brakes.

Why stay bearish on altcoins no matter what? It's all in the charts—altcoin funding rates are still negative. The market is just that harsh. Capital is rotating from risky assets back to core assets. When the outlook is unclear, funds prioritize self-preservation by retreating to BTC and ETH—those large-cap defensive plays. Altcoins took brutal hits recently, and rebuilding confidence takes time. Plus, many projects' fundamentals can't support their prices. Jumping in now? Nine times out of ten, you're catching a falling knife.

What's the rhythm going forward? My take:

For major coins: likely entering a channel of repeated oscillation—no sudden V-shaped reversal. Bulls still need time to accumulate momentum, with plenty of trapped positions weighing from above. But the bottom zone is gradually becoming clearer. Staying bearish at this point would be foolish. The key is whether we can hold important support levels.

For altcoins: continued divergence ahead. Some with main force operations or major catalysts might move first, but sector-wide momentum hasn't kicked in. Only when major coins fully stabilize will capital gradually overflow into seeking altcoin opportunities. Right now, patience is actually the most valuable asset.