Nắm vững 5 mối quan hệ giữa lượng và giá, giúp giao dịch của bạn không còn "mù quáng"

Many traders, when analyzing charts, only focus on price movements and ignore a equally critical signal — trading volume. In fact, the true trading opportunities are often hidden within subtle changes in volume-price relationships. Today, let’s deeply analyze the 5 most common volume-price patterns in the stock market to help you make precise moves among numerous opportunities.

What is the volume-price relationship?

The volume-price relationship refers to the interaction pattern between stock price changes and trading volume. This is not just two independent data points, but an intuitive reflection of market participants’ psychology.

When prices rise or fall, the accompanying trading volume directly indicates how many participants are “betting” on that direction. Large trading volume means high market participation, with both bulls and bears very active; small volume suggests market hesitation, with participants lacking consensus.

By learning to interpret the volume-price relationship, traders can:

• Judge the true strength of the trend
• Identify upcoming reversal signals
• Preemptively avoid risks or seize bottom-fishing opportunities

Detailed explanation of 5 common volume-price patterns

1. Price rises, volume shrinks — hidden concerns within an uptrend

Phenomenon description: Stock price continues to rise, but trading volume gradually diminishes.

This situation seems contradictory, but it actually conveys an important signal: although the price is still rising, buyers’ enthusiasm is waning. If the increase lacks volume support, it may just be a technical rebound rather than a sustainable trend.

Market implication: Market sentiment is growing cautious, new buyers lack support, and subsequent adjustments may occur.

Historical cases include Tesla’s stock price rising in early 2017 with a clear decline in volume; similar patterns appeared in Alibaba at certain stages. These all indicate the risk of weakening upward momentum.

2. Price flat, volume shrinks — hidden changes beneath calmness

Phenomenon description: Stock price fluctuates within a certain range, while trading volume gradually decreases.

This reflects a lack of clear expectations for the future. Participants are neither bearish nor bullish, just waiting. When volume continues to decline, it indicates market momentum is waning, and a breakout (up or down) may trigger a rapid response.

Market implication: This is a typical consolidation phase. Price may break out quickly after a trigger event.

3. Explosive volume decline — the most warning signal

Phenomenon description: Stock price drops sharply, accompanied by a surge in trading volume.

This is the most aggressive signal in the market. A large number of investors panic-sell simultaneously, indicating extreme pessimism — either due to negative news or collective change in market expectations.

In early 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hilton’s stock plunged with huge volume, reflecting market concerns about the industry outlook.

But this can also be an opportunity. In 2023, Estée Lauder’s stock plummeted due to earnings miss, but subsequent trend showed this panic sell-off was excessive, and investors who bought the dip gained significant returns.

Market implication: Caution is needed, but also distinguish whether it’s a “bear market signal” or a “misjudged opportunity”.

4. Volume shrinks, price declines — signs of slow adjustment

Phenomenon description: Stock price declines, but volume decreases instead of increasing.

Much gentler than explosive declines. It usually indicates two situations:

• The market is undergoing a mild correction, with relatively calm sentiment
• Or the market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for the next directional confirmation

In 2018, Netflix’s decline was accompanied by decreasing volume; in 2022, Facebook experienced similar patterns. These suggest the decline is not panic-driven but a natural adjustment.

Market implication: Risks are relatively controlled, but a new trigger is needed to confirm the next direction.

5. Price declines, volume increases — a sign of trend reversal

Phenomenon description: Stock price drops, but trading volume increases.

This relationship can be understood in two ways:

• Continued bearishness: Investors are selling off, and the downtrend may continue
• Accumulation phase: Smart money is building positions at lows, indicating a potential reversal

The key difference is the stage of decline. If volume increases at the end of a long downtrend, it usually means selling pressure has been fully released, and a bottom is forming.

At the end of 2018, Apple’s stock plunged due to iPhone sales decline and US-China trade tensions, with volume steadily rising. Similarly, Blackberry experienced this during its long decline, eventually seeing funds entering and the stock rebounding.

Market implication: Increasing volume during a decline often signals a shift from extreme pessimism to gradual recovery.

How to use volume-price relationships to guide trading?

1. Don’t rely solely on them: Volume-price patterns are just reference signals; combine with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis
2. Consider trend stages: The same volume-price pattern can have different implications in different trend phases
3. Observe persistence: Single signals are insufficient; look for sustained volume-price behavior
4. Set stop-losses: Even if your judgment is correct, leave room for unexpected movements

Summary

Volume-price relationship reflects market participation. Learning to interpret these 5 common patterns is like learning to “read market sentiment”. Positive volume-price combinations (e.g., volume increase at lows) often indicate strong opportunities; negative signals (e.g., volume shrinkage at highs, explosive declines) warrant caution.

But remember: There are no perfect trading signals. Volume-price analysis is just a tool to improve your decision success rate. Truly skilled traders are those who understand the market deeply and adapt flexibly.