Mid-2023 developer report: the number of developers has dropped by 22% compared with last year, and nearly half of new developers have left

Author: Electric Capital

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Key Points

• As of June 1, 2023, 21,300 monthly active open source developers.
• Since June 1, 2022, the number of developers has decreased by 22% year-on-year. *Developers who have recently left the crypto industry are mostly newcomers who have worked in the field for less than 12 months and are responsible for less than 20% of all code commits.
• In contrast, developers who have worked in the crypto space for 1 year or more continue to develop. They contributed more than 80% of the code.

As of June 1, 2023, the number of monthly active open source developers is 21,300. Today, there are more monthly active developers than the all-time high set by the crypto market in November 2021. However, the number of developers has declined over the past year.

• 22% reduction from June 1, 2022 (1 year ago)
• 25% increase from June 1, 2021 (2 years ago)
• Increased by 92% since June 1, 2020 (3 years ago)


Despite growth in the long run, what has happened since June 2022?

Developers who have been in the crypto field for more than 1 year continue to contribute, but many newcomers leave

Divide the time spent by monthly active developers working in the crypto space by comparing the time of the developer’s first and last code commit.

• Newcomers: Developers who have been in the crypto industry for less than a year
• Emerging developers: developers who have worked in the encryption field for 1 to 2 years
• Mature developers: developers who have worked in the encryption field for more than 2 years

Emerging developers are growing, while established developers are stabilizing. Last year’s decline in monthly active developers was mostly newcomers.

From June 2022 to June 2023:

• Newcomers: 48% decrease (approximately 7,730 fewer developers)
• Emerging developers: up 44% (approximately 1,650 developers added)
• Mature developers: 2% increase (approximately 150 developers added)


Why are there fewer newcomers?

Fewer and fewer developers are entering the crypto space

First, the number of newcomers has decreased because there are fewer new developers trying out the crypto industry.

Check out new developers by month below. 2900 new developers trying out cryptocurrencies in May 2023:

• Compared with February 2023: 20% decrease
• Compared with November 2022: 42% decrease
• Compared with May 2022: 50% reduction


Historically, developer retention in bear markets is low

Secondly, the decrease in newcomers is because the newly joined developers in 2023 will not stay for a long time. It is possible to graph developer monthly retention rates from January 2021.

How many months do most of the new developers on the list typically leave (<20% retention rate)?

• 2021: 6 to 10 months
• 2022: 3 to 6 months
• 2023 (so far): 3 to 4 months


The retention rate in 2023 is worse than in 2022 or 2021. But if you narrow it down, the 2023 retention rate is not anomalous.

If you do a retention analysis from 2015, you will find that developers who joined during the bear market leave faster.

New developers are leaving faster in 2023 than in 2022 or 2021, typical of a bear market.


Newcomers tend to have a high proportion at the peak of the market

Market cycles also explain the split between the number of newcomers, emerging developers, and established developers.

Proportion of newcomers at the peak of the market:

*January 2018 to June 2018: 70%

• November 2021 to June 2022: 60%

Once in a bear market, developers (emerging and established developers) who have been working in the crypto space for more than a year will be in the majority:

*January 2018 to January 2020: 60%

• November 2021 to June 2023: 60%


But despite the overall decline in monthly active developers, how important are departing developers?

Developers who stay in crypto commit more code, push code for longer days, and work longer in crypto than devs who leave

If a developer doesn’t contribute code within two months, they can be said to have “gone”.

Developers who stopped contributing after March 2023 accounted for less than 20% of the historical submissions.



What are the characteristics of developers who continue to contribute code? By analyzing the developers who contributed in April and May 2023:

• Contribute most of the code
• more active days
• Longer time in the crypto industry


Let’s look at the specific details:

First, developers who contributed most recently in April 2023 and May 2023 have historically contributed the majority of code commits (80%+).


Secondly, developers who contributed code in April and May 2023 will have more days to push code.

Separate the developers who left recently from those who stayed and plot the number of days they were actively pushing code.

Median number of days developers actively pushed code:

*Continuing developers: 13 active weeks *Departed developers: 2 active weeks


Third, developers contributing in April and May 2023 have been engaged in cryptocurrency for longer.

You can separate the developers who left recently from those who stayed and look at their tenure.

Median number of days a developer has worked on cryptocurrency:

*Continuing developers: 19 weeks *Departed developers: 8 weeks


From a developer perspective, which ecosystems are growing so far in 2023?

Osmosis, Sui, Aptos, TON, Optimism and Aztec Protocol YoY Growth

Ecosystems with the fastest growing number of monthly active developers (June 2023 vs. June 2022):

• Osmosis：+56%
• Sui：+159%
• Apts：+90%
• TON：+102%
• Optimism：+27%
• Aztec Protocol：+267%


Related reading: Interpretation of the Web3 developer report: Under the 2022 bear market, is it suitable to enter Web3?