#加密市场普遍上涨 Today’s cryptocurrency market along with gold and silver both declined, and the focus behind it is actually like this.....

On Monday, after the gold market opened, the prices of gold and silver both fell. The key points are the latest developments in the US-Iran war, while also waiting for and analyzing the central bank meetings this Thursday early morning. As of the time of writing, the gold price expiring in June has fallen by $24.00, now at $4,717.00; the silver price expiring in May has dropped by $0.804, now at $75.60.

Regarding the latest news on the Middle East war…—Iran told Pakistan that if the US lifts the maritime blockade, the war might end.
—Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the blockade measures are still in effect.
—The US claims its navy intercepted a ship related to Iran in the Arabian Sea.
—Germany has prepared naval forces to respond to potential missions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has made a new proposal to the US: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The proposal includes a pause in nuclear negotiations. According to the plan, all parties should first extend the ceasefire to prepare for a permanent end to fighting; nuclear talks can then resume after the US lifts the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The Pakistani mediator has submitted this proposal to the White House, but it’s unclear whether the US is willing to consider this plan.
On Saturday night in the US, an armed man with a knife stormed into a high-level journalist dinner at the Washington Hilton Hotel. At the time, Trump, Vice President Vance, and several US officials were present. The man charged toward the banquet hall but was controlled by Secret Service personnel. No one was injured, and he was quickly taken away from the scene. Law enforcement officials said the gunman fired shots. According to multiple media reports, one law enforcement officer was shot due to wearing a bulletproof vest, but it’s expected there’s no life-threatening danger. This week, several major central banks will hold meetings. US and G7 policymakers are likely to keep current interest rates steady while closely monitoring inflation risks triggered by rising energy costs.
Currently, the main external market data shows: the US dollar index has fallen slightly, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is at 4.32%. It’s important to note that the gold market mainly operates through two pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, where prices are determined for immediate transactions and delivery. The second is the futures market, where prices are set for delivery at a future date. Due to changes in market liquidity around year-end, the December-expiring gold futures contracts are currently the most actively traded on the CME market.

From a technical perspective, bullish gold futures investors’ next target price is to break through the important resistance level of $5,000. Meanwhile, bears hope to push the futures price below the key technical support of $4,500. The first resistance is at $4,750, followed by $4,800. The first support is at last week’s low of $4,672, then at $4,626.
For silver, the next bullish target price is for the price to break through the strong technical resistance level of $83.245 from April. For bears, the next downside target is for the price to fall below $70, an important support level. The first resistance is at $77.50, then at $80. The next support is at last week’s low of $73.845, and further down at $72.
Today’s crypto market: Despite renewed hopes for US-Iran negotiations, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices still declined. Although Iran proposed a new plan to end the war with the US, cautious investor sentiment caused Bitcoin to fall below $78,000. Ethereum’s price broke below the 100-day moving average and is currently hovering around the $2,300 support level, with various market indicators also showing weakness. Despite the “super trend” indicator signaling a buy, XRP still struggles to hold the 50-day moving average support.

On Monday, prices of various cryptocurrencies generally declined as market participants digest the latest developments in Middle East conflicts.
Bitcoin dropped below $78,000; earlier, it approached the weekly high of $79,485, aiming to hit $80,000 but was then sold off. Ethereum stayed above the $2,300 support level.
XRP maintained above $1.40, a key level. However, its upside is limited by two important moving averages, showing a generally weak bearish trend. As hopes for Middle East peace grow, gains in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have slowed.

Today’s performance: Bitcoin faced pressure, falling below the $80,000 support level. The trading price of Bitcoin is $77,619.
In the short term, its trend remains upward because its price has stayed above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages—at $73,362 and $75,635 respectively.
All technical indicators also support this upward trend: the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is around 61, and the MACD histogram remains positive, indicating that although upward momentum has weakened, buyers still control the market.

From a technical standpoint, the 200-day moving average at $82,155 is the next important resistance. If the price can break through this resistance, the upward trend may continue further. On the downside, initial support is around the rising trend line at $76,897; subsequent supports are at the 100-day moving average of $75,635 and the 50-day moving average of $73,362.
If the price experiences a larger correction, the super trend support zone near $72,031 will be the next support point. If the bull market remains intact, buying opportunities are expected at this level.
Altcoin technical analysis: Ethereum and XRP’s rebound momentum temporarily stalls. Ethereum’s current price is $2,310. Bullish forces are pushing the price above the downtrend line, which has now turned into support at around $2,304.
Prices of tokens related to smart contracts also stay above the 50-day moving average, around $2,241. Despite the overall market correction, a short-term upward trend is still possible. From technical indicators, the RSI on the daily chart is slightly above the midline of 50; the MACD histogram remains negative, indicating that while there is upward momentum, it’s not yet strong enough to form a solid rally.
From a technical perspective, the current resistance is near the 100-day moving average at about $2,352. If the price can break through this resistance, the next target is around the 200-day moving average at $2,627. Support levels are at about $2,304, below which the support zone drops to around $2,095.
As for XRP, its current price stays above the 50-day moving average, at about $1.42. However, its price remains below the downtrend support at $1.43.
XRP’s price is also below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, at $1.53 and $1.78 respectively. This indicates that, despite a decent overall outlook, XRP’s upside potential is limited. On the daily chart, RSI is around 52, a neutral level. The MACD shows a slight upward trend but has weakened recently.
From the downside, support is at the 50-day moving average at $1.42. If the price falls below this, the next key support is around $1.31. On the upside, initial resistance is near $1.43, the previous downtrend line area.
Only when the price can sustain a breakout above this resistance can it further rise toward the 100-day moving average at $1.53.

This article is for sharing and discussion only, not investment advice.