Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within the narrow range of $77,400-$77,850. After spiking to $79,488 today, it quickly pulled back, failing to break above the $80k level for the third time in nearly two months. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD shows bearish divergence, and the 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, creating resonance. The RSI shows clear bearish divergence signals, and bullish momentum has significantly weakened; funding rates remain negative (average around -0.003% over 8 hours), with the 30-day cumulative rate approaching -7%. The bearish structure remains unchanged, and on-chain data indicates multiple large bullish whales are gradually reducing or closing positions above $79,000, showing strong profit-taking willingness at high levels.

On the macro front, although there are reports of easing in US-Iran negotiations, Brent crude oil remains above $100 per barrel, and geopolitical risks are unresolved. Coupled with the further delay of rate cut expectations until after September, the market is in a “liquidity contraction” phase, with risk asset appetite suppressed. Short-term support for BTC is at $77,000; if broken, it could test the $74,000-$75,000 zone (the 100-day moving average and lower boundary of the upward channel). Key resistance is at $79,500-$80,000.

Ethereum (ETH) is significantly weaker than Bitcoin, currently consolidating around $2,320. Although attempting to break upward, volume is insufficient. Today, due to negative news, a large bearish candle on the 4-hour chart directly broke below the $2,350 support. If BTC cannot hold above $78,000, ETH may experience accelerated decline after double top breakdown. Support levels are at $2,250-$2,280, with strong support at $2,180-$2,220; resistance is at $2,400-$2,450.

In terms of trading strategy, focus mainly on Bitcoin, adopting a rebound-and-short approach: consider gradually opening short positions in the $78,300-$78,600 range, with a stop above $79,500. First support is at $77,500; if broken, look at $74,000-$75,000. For ETH, consider shorting around $2,350-$2,370 during rebounds. Overall, avoid chasing longs; take profits promptly and secure gains. #行情分析