I've noticed something concerning in the market these days. Short-term Bitcoin holders continue to sell at a loss, and the selling pressure remains strong. Their SOPR indicator has stayed below 1.0 for consecutive days, which simply means they are selling their coins for less than what they paid.

The current price is around $77,780, but the average cost basis for this group was about $89,000. That's roughly a 24% loss! Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin they hold has decreased from 6.06 million to 5.92 million in just two weeks. Either they are giving in to losses, or they are simply converting their coins into long-term investments.

An important point: this massive supply surplus means that if the price rises slightly, we could see a lot of this group selling to cut losses. This means the rebound won't be as strong as we hope. The real market turning indicator is when SOPR stays above 1.0 for several days while the price rises in parallel. For now, the downward pressure still dominates.